Transplanted Cubs Fan Blog

Called up to the show....

2005-03-11T17:20:00.000-08:00

To keep up the excitement for you, my new site at the MVN network has just merged with all-baseball.com and the most wonderful, "The Cub Reporter". As far as I understand postings will fall under both sites but that might change. Besides my current partner George at "Behind the Ivy", I will be joined by 4 new writers. Cubs news will be oozing out of your ears. So come by and check out the new digs.

You Want the Truth, You Can't Handle the Truth

2004-11-29T17:56:00.000-08:00

As I mentioned, I'm now writing at the MVN network, so stop on by. Here's a link to my latest article.

http://cubs.mostvaluablenetwork.com/index.php?p=85

SOSA TRADED!!!!

2004-11-19T01:05:00.000-08:00

Well not yet, but it could happen. Ha...that just's mean, I know. Sorry but I needed an attention-grabber, cause I've got big news baby and I mean BABIES!!!

The AngelFan Wife and me are going to be the proud parents of twins...and we're not talking the Minnesota variety. We found out about 2 weeks ago and besides being overwhelmed, I'm actually beyond thrilled. Heck, they could be batterymates...the first ever brother to pitch to his own brother. Of course we don't know the sex yet as they aren't due until May(and if you're listening kids, try to escape the womb sometime in mid-May so Daddy can still catch the Cubs on their West Coast trip to San Diego and Los Angeles). And don't get me wrong, if they're girls I'll be just as thrilled as long as their happy and healthy, but if one turns out to be a boy who happens to be a power hitting lefty then so be it.

We're open for name suggestions and dressing them is going to be fun (okay who gets the Cubs socks, who get the Angels socks?) My first thought was to name them "2002" and "1908" but then one would always have an inferiority complex. As we figure it, one can be an Angel fan, one can be a Cubs fan and they BOTH can be White Sox haters.

And the news doesn't end there people. Apparently some folks have been reading this blog and liked it enough to ask me to come aboard the MVN network. Since I'm greedy for readership and liked the work that was going on over there, I agreed. So Transplanted Cubs Fan will be no longer as I'll be writing under the "Behind the Ivy" moniker along with fellow blogger George Kyroudis.

For the time being, I'll be posting links to my stuff over there, but eventually this will all disappear. Thanks to all that stopped by and PLEASE come on by to "Behind the Ivy" and bring your friends along with. I'd love to make it something special over there. I've already starting posting and here are links to my first 2 posts:

Movin' On Up
Lies, Damned Lies

Hope to see you over there and thanks again to all those who stopped by.

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part VI of VI

2004-11-17T22:09:00.000-08:00

The last installment of my Cubs Off-Season Guide, just a basic summary. I was going to do a bit on the minor league system and Dusty but I'll save it for another time. Arbitration salaries are AN ABSOLUTE GUESS!!!

Committed & Arbitration Eligible Contracts
C - Michael Barrett - Arbitration eligible: $2.5 million
1B - Derek Lee - $7 million
3B - Aramis Ramirez - Arbitration eligible: $8 million
2B/SS - Neifi Perez - $ 1 million, $1.5 in potential incentives
CF - Corey Patterson - Arbitration eligible: $3 million
RF - Sammy Sosa - $17 million
SP - Kerry Wood - $8.5 million, $1 million of his bonus
SP - Mark Prior - $2.5 million, can opt out for arbitration, but can't see him getting much more.
SP - Carlos Zambrano - Arbitration eligible: $3 million
SP - Greg Maddux - $9 million
RP LaTroy Hawkins - $3.5 million
RP Ryan Dempster - $2 million
RP Mike Remlinger - $3.8 million
RP Joe Borowski - $2.3 million
RP Kyle Farnsworth- Arbitration eligible: $1.75 million

$75.85 million estimate for 15 players

Last years Cubs budget was $91 million and AT MOST that will go up to $95 million. That my loyal readers is ONLY $20 million to fill 10 spots. YIKES!!!!

The 10 spots are:
Backup C
Starting LF
Starting SS
Starting 2B
5th Starter
2 Relief Pitchers
2 Utility OF's
Utility IF

UNLESS the Cubs trade Sammy and save at least $10 million in the deal, I'll be very surpised if the Cubs make any significant off-season signings. Or to say the least Carlos Beltran is going to be tough to get unless we're planning an infield combo of Neifi & Jose Macias. Here is MY PLAN:

C - Bako or Todd Pratt ($850,000)
RF- J.D. Drew ($12 million)
SS - Garciaparra - ($8 million)
2B - Todd Walker - ($2.5 million)
5th starter - Sergio Mitre ($350,000)
RP - 2 out of Wuertz, Leicester, Will Ohman & Wellemeyer ($650,000)
OF - Hollandsworth ($1.5 million)
OF - Dubois ($350,000)
IF - Pokey Reese ($1 million)

Grand total: $27.2 million

Okay I'm over by a bit, but if the Sosa trade happens which looks to be more realistic every day and we end up with Cliff Floyd or even better Aubrey Huff from Tampa and save $7 to $10 million, it's a possibility. And if anything I'm at least close, not to mention who knows about my arbitration figures. Hendry and McPhail have never gone to arbitration with a player and they SHOULD sign Aramis and Zambrano to long-term deals and save some money there. I'm sure Mitre isn't everyone's favorite option as a 5th starter but he's cheap and pitched exceptionally at AAA Iowa(6-3 3.03 ERA), I think he deserves another chance and it's possible one of our minor league studs (Bobby Brownlie or Reynel Pinto) could be ready by mid-year if he falters again. Ryan Dempster may be the plan already that Hendry just hasn't shared with the rest of the world.

That also means no big money for a closer but none that are available are worth it. Don't ask me what to do..maybe Borowski comes back to form , otherwise try Dempster or Farnsworth.

There's also the trade front, I think they could trade Farnsworth for a legitimate lefty specialist or LOOGIE if you prefer. Next year's potential lineup:

2B - Walker
SS - Garciaparra
3B - Ramirez
RF - Drew
1B - Derek Lee
LF - Aubrey Huff
CF - Corey Patterson
C - Michael Barrett

Starting Pitching staff
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Carlos Zambrano
Greg Maddux
Sergio Mitre

Relief Corps
Mike Remlinger
Kyle Farnsworth (Trade him for Mike Gonzalez or B.J. Ryan if they'd take it)
LaTroy Hawkins
Joe Borowski
Ryan Dempster
Jon Leicester
Todd Wellemeyer or Mike Wuertz

Bench
Paul Bako
Neifi Perez
Pokey Reese
Jason Dubois
Todd Hollandsworth
David Kelton (instead of Wellemeyer or Wuertz)

Pretty good lineup in my opinion and a killer staff. Now although we didn't make the playoffs last year, the 2 biggest words I can pass along to everyone is "DON'T PANIC". This Cubs team record by the Pythagorean formula was a 94 win team, not an 89 win team that we ended up. Injuries, tough losses and most importantly 1 run losses contributed to a record that was poorer than it should have been. The history of baseball says that will correct itself next year. A major overhaul is NOT needed, just a few improvements. So don't go too nutty Hendry and start brining in the Tony Womack's of the world, stay the course, power pitching, let your minors develop, make big trades when they make sense and this Cub team will win the division next year.

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part V of VI

2004-11-14T22:26:00.000-08:00

I'm just finishing up this off-season guide before I announce the big move. Today we talk about the bench, this will be much like the bullpen format.

Committed contracts
Neifi Perez - $1 million with another $1.5 million in potential incentives

Arbitration Eligible
Jose Macias

Depending if they go 7 deep or 6 deep with the bullpen will depend if we go 4 deep or 5 deep on the bullpen. If it was my bench I'd go with:

Backup Catcher -
2 utility infielders
2 utility outfielders

On top of that, one of the above should be able to steal you a base at any time (think Dave Roberts), two of them need to be able to hit left-handed, and at least one of your infielders is on the team cause of his defense.

Now backup catching duties will probably go back to Paul Bako. I have no real feelings about this, I mean he can't hit, but everyone seems to rave about his defense. So that's fine, neither for or against. Just pray Barrett doesn't go down. I'd like for the team to go after a slightly better hitter, maybe a Todd Pratt. Although if you like rumors we may end up with Piazza and Charles Johnson as our catchers. Wouldn't that be interesting? I'm betting on a Bako return at about $850,000.

Neifi takes one of the IF spots and can probably play 2B as well as SS. The problem with him is other than being one of the worst offensive players in the league, his defense isn't all that great and he steals bases at barely over a .500 success rate. What a waste!

Let's all hope and pray Macias is NOT the other super-utility player, I have nothing to say about him other than he sucks. I presume and hope Dubois is one of the bench guys as well. The dude has raked minor league pitching and it's time to give him a shot at the majors. My other hope is for Todd Hollandsworth to come back, bad shins and all. Here's my expectations for the Cubs bench next year:

Paul Bako
Neifi Perez
Todd Hollandsworth
Jason Dubois
Pokey Reese

This would give us some pop off the bench from both sides (Hollandsworth and Dubois), and a defensive stud/basestealer in Pokey Reese (85% success rate in SB's for his career). If we can't get Reese or get back Hollandsworth a trade for Dave Roberts would be nice as well. Other potential bench options I wouldn't mind,

Miguel Cairo
Gabe Kapler
Mark McLemore (probably retiring)
Ramon Martinez
Jose Hernandez
Craig Counsell

I'll finish my summary off-season guide probably on Tuesday along with the big announcement. Stay tuned!!!

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part IV of VI

2004-11-11T13:18:00.000-08:00

The Bullpen's turn and although we all want a major overhaul, you're going to see that it's virtually impossible with our current contracts. I'm going to format this a little different and not really go into each guy and look at the bullpen more as whole unit.

Committed contracts
LaTroy Hawkins - $3.5 million, player option for '06 at 3.5 mil plus playing incentives
Ryan Dempster - $2 million
Mike Remlinger - $3.8 million
Joe Borowski - $2.3 million

Arbitration Eligible
Kyle Farnsworth - 2004 salary was $1.4 million

So depending if you go with a 7 or 6 man bullpen and if they end up offering Farnsworth arbitration, the Cubs need to fill anywhere from 1-3 spots. Now everybody wants us to sign an established closer after the Hawkins debacle. but I'm telling you the cubbard is bare people.

Available FA's are:
Armando Benitez
Troy Percival
Billy Koch (sometimes I make myself laugh)
Robb Nen (assuming he's actually healthy)
Bob Wickman (if we were getting the 2002 version but um no)
Dustin Hermanson (I suppose he quallifies as a closer)

Benitez would be a respectable pickup but we have other roles to fill and I just don't think we have the money. Percival I'm telling you is damaged goods. He's lost a good 4-5 miles off his fastball, his K rate is in a massive decline and he's a flyball pitcher which is something you don't want in Wrigley. Taking a flyer on Nen isn't the worst idea I ever heard but I'm haven't heard anything about him yet this offseason.

I have heard rumors about the following group as possible trades: Eric Gagne, Danny Baez, Danny Kolb & Shawn Chacon.

Who wouldn't want Gagne but the rumor is it would cost us one of our big 3 (Wood, Prior or Zambrano) and well that's a bad idea. Tampa is shopping Baez, no word on if the Cubs are interested, the Kolb rumor I came across at The Cub Reporter that the Cubs discussed it at an organizational meeting and although his K/BB rate is atrocious(1.33 career) as well as his K/9 rate(5.57 career), his extreme groundball nature(3.11 G/F career) could be useful if we put together a bench of good late inning defensive replacements. Shawn Chacon is a nightmare, even outside of Coors field.

So what should we do? What almost every other team does to find a closer and that is find someone who isn't a closer. 99.9% of all closers did not start their careers as closers. Awhile back I posted these guys at some potential trade options (none of which I know are available):

B.J. Ryan 3.49 K/BB 12.62 K/9
Brendan Donnelly 3.73 K/BB 12.00 K/9
Juan Rincon 3.31 K/BB 11.63 K/9
Mike Gonzalez 9.17 K/BB 11.42 K/9
R. Betancourt 4.22 K/BB 10.26 K/9
A. Otsuka 3.35 K/BB 10.13 K/9
S. Linebrink 3.19 K/BB 8.89 K/9

But anyone who can dominate in the late innings meaning a K/BB rate over 3.00 and a K/9 rate over 9 can probably be a closer. Do we need to go down the list of teams who found closers from within or by taking a chance on someone else's junk.
Okay here we go...

Joe Nathan
Brad Lidge
John Smoltz
Eric Gagne
on and on and on

See where I'm going....anyway I don't know who the closer will be next year but I'm guessing it's not a big name Free Agent.

Our other concern is to fill the hole that Kent Mercker's departure should leave us and that's a legitimate lefty out of the pen. Remlinger does not qualify cause he's actually better against righties than lefties (I wish Baker knew this) and although I'm not sold that a team needs one, having one is something Dusty Baker needs otherwise we'll see more of Remlinger in that siutation. Steve Kline is the best option out there but it looks like the Yankees want him. Our very own Will Ohman might be a good choice as well.

My best guess at next year's bullpen:
Mike Remlinger
LaTroy Hawkins
Joe Borowski
Ryan Dempster
Will Ohman
Kyle Farnsworth
John Leicester, Todd Wellemeyer or Mike Wuertz

Not the overhaul we're hoping for and when I summarize this whole off-seson guide, you'll see we DO NOT have the money to do much here. Farnsworth might get traded but most of his peripherals say he should be a good pitcher and he has been 2 out of the last 4 seasons. As for the closer unless a trade brings us one, I think we have to hope either Borowski finds his 2002-2003 form or Dempster can somehow find the touch(although his atrocious walk rate frightens me terribly and he may actually be our 5th starter).

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part III of VI

2004-11-10T11:44:00.000-08:00

A look at our starting staff, this should be easy as no one is going anywhere but Matt Clement.

Pitcher - Kerry Wood
Contract Status - Signed through 2006 with an option for 2007, no-trade clause. $8.5 million in 2005, $11 million in 2006. Their is a club option at $13.5 million for 2007 or $3 million buyout. If he pitches 400 or more innings in 2005-06 then it basically becomes a player option where he could choose the 2007 option or become a free agent.

A rather inconsistent year for Wood but that's kind of where he has settled at this point in his career. I seemed to catch most of his games last year and he got screwed by his defense more than any other pitcher on the Cubs and it was stuff that wont't show up in his ERA. Things like in San Fran where Ramirez dropped a pop fly and then no one covered 3rd base on a Bonds overshift (and there are more), but I guess that happens to every pitcher.

Just so everyone knows, Wood is not a #1 starter, he is a very, very good #2 or #3 starter on your staff and with Zambrano and Prior, you have the 2000's version of Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux where anyone of them can win a Cy Young from year to year. Wood stills strikes out a ton of guys and walks quite a few as well. And I'm pretty sure he'll put it all together one year and give us one of those monster years we've all been waiting for. Good news is we have enough now at the major league level where we won't depend on him.

Potential Replacements None, if he stays healthy he could contend for a Cy Young (you'll be seeing that again in this post)

Pitcher - Mark Prior
Contract Status - Signed through 2006 but can opt-out for arbitration this year which I assume he'll do. Won't get much of a raise over $2.5 million he was due.

Mark Prior's September/October numbers:
2-0 2.17 ERA 37.1 IP, 7 BB, 43 K's

Pretty much what we were all hoping for the entire year. Whatever ailed Prior seemed to finally heal in September. The biggest reason for his disappointment last year was his lack of control. His K/BB rates the last 3 years:

2002 - 3.87
2003 - 4.90
2004 - 2.90

And not to mention that lack of control led to quite a few pitches left over the plate and thus a few too many extra base hits. Will Carroll over at all-baseball.com and baseballprospectus.com speculated that in September he finally found his release point and it lead to his improved numbers. Something like 1/8th of an inch difference in release point is something like an 8 inch difference in pitch location. His hurt ankle caused him to change his mechanics, which put a slight pain in his elbow and the aforementioned struggles in finding his release point. Let's hope that's the case and not Dusty's insistence on throwing him for 120+ pitches in blowouts.

I'm pretty stoked on another dominating year from Prior next year and he should be our #1 if everything is going right for him.

Potential Replacements None, if he stays healthy he could contend for a Cy Young (you'll be seeing that again in this post)

Pitcher - Carlos Zambrano
Contract Status - Arbitration eligible, at least $2-3 million. Cubs should sign him and buyout his arbitration years once they figure out their free agent situation.

Crazy Z may soon become one of my all-time favorite Cubs. The boy just deals and he plays with emotion. He's toyed with no-hitters already twice and honestly is the most fun thing to watch in a Cubs uniform since Sammy was pounding them out onto Waveland at an alarming rate. My favorite Crazy Z moment was the July 19th game versus the Cardinals. We all remember this right? He plunks Edmonds in the 1st, Edmonds knocks one out and stares at it from home plate and Z lets him know it's not appreciated. Next at-bat he strikes Edmonds out on 3 straight fastballs and then after Rolen hits a 2 run bomb off of him, and figuring he's not going to be around much longer he just drills Edmonds on the next pitch. There's a rivalry for you. Can't wait till they meet up next year.

He finished 5th in the Cy Young (I would have put him 4th) and if he ever figures out how to lower his walks, he'll easily be in Pedro, Big Unit, Schilling territory. Let's hope Baker doesn't pitch him until his arm falls off. Great year and expect A LOT MORE.

Potential Replacements None, if he stays healthy he could contend for a Cy Young. (I'm done writing that for now)

Pitcher - Greg Maddux
Contract Status - $9 million in 2005, $9 million in 2006 if he pitches at least 400 innings in 2004-05. (187 IP to go)

We're paying a little too much for a guy with a 4.02 ERA last year, but as a certain first ballot Hall of Famer he still could rebound for a little better year next year. He did give up an alarming 35 HR's last year (easily a career high), so if the wind blows in on a few of those starts, he's suddenly an All-Star caliber pitcher. I'm glad we have him and when he's on, probably one of the more fun pitchers to watch. He won his 14th Gold Glove this year and if he does one thing before he leaves, I hope he teaches Wood and Zambrano how to get into fielding position after each pitch.

Potential Replacements None, Cy Young days are past but he's one helluva 4th or 5th starter.

Pitcher - None
Contract Status - None

Matt Clement was quite fantastic last year, as in Cy Young contender until August and September hit. Some can be attributed to a neck injury, some of it to he just ran out of gas. The Cubs need to offer him arbitration and get whoever's draft pick he ends up signing with(He's a Type B free agent which means a 1st or 2nd pick but no sandwich pick). I've already heard the Indians and D'Backs are interested (the Rangers should be interested if they have a brain) and there will be more. There's a small chance he'd accept arbitration but I doubt he would turn away the secuirty of a multi-year deal for the potential of a higher one year deal.

Glendon Rusch was also on the fantastic side of things last year and easily our biggest surprise. It was also easily the best year of his career. Since the Cubs need to fill this spot on the cheap with so many other glaring needs & pay raises, Rusch is probably the best option. Although if we somehow swing a Sosa for Randy Johnson trade, then I'm all for it.

Potential Replacements Glendon Rusch, Sergio Mitre, David Wells, Ryan Dempster....other scrubs as long as they are not named Shawn Estes

Free Agent Compensation

2004-11-08T16:16:00.000-08:00

The list of free agents and their rankings as either Type A,B,C or none of the above is out and you can find it here.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html

Check out the Roster Rules for a good explanation, but here's the quick and dirty version. All free agents are ranked as either a Type A,B,C or not good enough to qualify. If his former team offers him arbitration and another team signs him, then the former team is awarded compensation for the signing.

Basically it helps determine whether you offer a player arbitration and/or you should sign another team's player knowing you may risk losing a draft pick. The big thing of course is whether or not a team offers the player arbitration, cause you risk that they may accept it. (i.e. Greg Maddux 2 years ago for the Braves who accepted arbitration although the Braves really didn't expect him too). Last year there were only about 20 some players who were offered arbitration. Here's the Cubs list:

Type A:
Moises Alou, Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Grudzielanek, Kent Mercker

Type B:
Matt Clement, Todd Walker

Type C:
Ben Grieve, Ramon Martinez, Todd Hollandsworth

So Alou and Garciaparra there is no way in hell you offer arbitration cause they'd almost definitely accept it. It's rare that a players gets a paycut in arbitration and neither of those are expecting multi-year deals. Grudz is a tricky one cause he has been relatively good the last 2 years and some team may take a chance on him as a starting 2b, but since I really don't want to see him back, I would let him go. Same goes for Mercker cause who in their right mind would give up a 1st round pick for Mercker? Now one of the rules is a team with a pick in the top 15 only loses their 2nd round pick and not their 1st, plus Mercker wasn't all that bad so if he accepts it, it wouldn't be the end of the world. In the end, I'd probably say no.

Clement to me is an absolute must. His agent is going to convince a pitching starved team to sign him to a multi-year deal next year and explain any concerns they have with how he finished on physical problems with his neck. If by some crazy reason he accepts arbitration, we'll have a slightly overpaid 5th starter for one more year until Brownlie or Pinto is ready. Walker is also an absolute must as we should want him back and if he does sign with someone else, we should get their pick for it.

Hollandsworth is also a yes in my opinion, Grieve and Martinez would be no's.

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part II of VI

2004-11-04T17:07:00.000-08:00

Here's a look at our starting outfielders, a place where if Sosa leaves could look very different next year.

Left Field - Open
Contract Status - Open

Moises Alou had one helluva a year last year offensively and surprisingly his defense wasn't as atrocious as I thought at least according to defensive win shares. That being said he was old, overpaid and more than anything I could NOT STAND THE CONSTANT WHINING. Play and shut up!!!! Plus Mr. Piss Hands jokes just have to end. So declining his option was a no brainer as they could bring him back for $6 million next year plus the buyout saving him a few million if they chose that route.

Now listen Mr. Hendry, DON'T CHOOSE THAT ROUTE!!! He's also a base-running train wreck and if the wind wasn't blowing out so much last year he would have looked just as bad as the last 2 years. There are only 3 ballparks in the NL I think he can succeed anymore since he pulls EVERYTHING, Wrigley with the wind blowing out, the Juice Box in Houston and the video game ballpark in Colorado, (he'd probably have a field day in Boston as well). So where do we go?

Well the hot rumor is sign Beltran and move C-Pat to left field which would give us a rather devastating defensive outfield. And if Beltran goes for $15 million, I'm all for it. But here's a word of warning, look at Beltran's numbers last year and Alou's:

Beltran: .267/.367/.548 38 HR, 104 RBI. 121 Runs, 42 SB 3 CS
Alou: .293/.361/.557 39 HR, 106 RBI, 106 Runs, 3 SB 0 CS

Eerily similar, so all of those that expect just signing Beltran will improve our 7th ranked NL offense, it's not going to happen. Not to mention if you sign him, you'll probably not afford any upgrades at SS or 2B, plus Boras is saying he wants a 10 year deal meaning we'll have an overaged outfielder with a burdensome contract in about 7 or so years. (If that doesn't sound familiar scroll down to the right field section of this post). Now don't get me wrong, obviously Beltran is going to be better in the long run and his defense and baserunning are probably worth 1 to 4 wins all in itself, but don't expect us to compete with the Phils, Cards and Giants next year(offensively) if this is our only significant move in the off-season.

If we can get Beltran for the $14-15 million range and 5 to 7 years, then I'm all for it but anymore and I think there are other options like J.D. Drew, Magglio Ordonez or a trade for Jose Guillen. . My top choices are below.
Potential Replacements:J.D. Drew, Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, Brad Wilkerson, Jose Guillen, Jason Dubois, Moises Alou, Todd Hollandsworth, Jermaine Dye

Center Field - Corey Patterson
Contract Status - Arbitration eligible, $480,000, expected 2005 deal I'm guessing in the $2 - $5 million range

Corey is the definition of a guy who strikes out WAY TOO MUCH. I have no problem with strikeouts if you work the count, constantly at 2-2 or 3-2, but that is not what Corey does. Corey thinks he 6-5 and swings at WAY TOO MANY bad pitches particularly over his head. That being said he's still only 25 so we can expect improvement over the next 3-5 years and hopefully that comes in the way of not swinging at pitches over his head. Want to see the definition of hot and cold....

OPS By Month
April: .820
May: .691
June: .932
July: .571
Aug: .993
Sept: .644
Oct: .382 (in 3 games)

Good news is defensively he completely turned it around last year, showing off a good arm, chasing down everything while finally realizing that he is ALLOWED to call off Sosa and Alou and defensive win shares show him as deserving of a gold glove (one which Steve Finley somehow ended up with). Baserunning wise he also set a career high with 32, while being caught only 9 times for a 78 percent success rate which is good.

If they do end up moving him to LF cause they sign Beltran his value will go down as he won't produce the numbers expected of your corner outfielders, but Hendry values players reaching their prime years so don't expect Patterson to get moved anywhere.

Potential Replacements:None, he should be a Cub for another 3 years and hopefully his breakout year is coming in 2005

Right Field - Sammy Sosa
Contract Status - $18 million, with an $18 million team option for 2006 or a $4.5 million buyout, option automatically vests if he's traded plus he's a 10/5 man

Where do you start when it comes to Mr. Sosa? Is he a clubhouse distraction, has he dejuiced, can he still reach 2001 or even 2002 levels or is he a DH waiting to happen? Do we trade him and start over and if we do trade him, the bigger question is HOW do we trade him?

Everyone is calling for Sammy's head as if he's the reason we didn't make it to the Wild Card, that if he was more unselfish, more a team player, more a leader, on and on and on. And there are valid points, you definitely want your captain to be a good example for the rest of your teammates and not be the distraction that he can tend to be.....of course he's only a distraction cause of the media but I digress.

I'm going to write a big old article just on Sammy once I finish this off-season guide, but right now trading him looks very difficult unless we're interested in acquiring a bunch of bad contracts rather that one and well that doesn't sound appealing. All the press reports and stuff you'll hear from Sammy this off-season is a ploy for him to try and force a trade so his option gets vested cause he knows the Cubs are going to turn it down and he won't get anywhere near that kind of money on the open market next year. The thing is that I think Hendry is smart enough to know that it's all a ploy and I'm about 60-70% sure at this moment that Sammy will be coming into spring training wearing a Cubs uniform.

Potential Replacements:You'll hear a lot of names but I'm not sold on any of them, trades are way too hard to predict so I don't know if it's worth trying. Personally one more year and a farewell tour of sorts sounds like the best option, not to mention any trade we make probably means we have to take on some bad multi-year deals rather than just suffer through one more year of Sosa. My hope is he stays, realizes he's playing for probably his last multi-year deal and puts up a nice .300/.400/.600 line with about 50 HR's and 150 RBI's. (a boy can dream right). I'll take .280/.380/.550 to be honest.

Cubs Off-Season Guide Part I of VI

2004-11-03T13:06:00.000-08:00

It's a shame we don't use Roman numerals more often.....isn't the Super Bowl like XL or somehthing weird this year.

So here's what I'm going to do, it's my guide to what the Cubs should/could do this offseason and I'm breaking it into 5 parts.

- Starting Infield - (5 deep)
- Starting Outfield - (3 deep)
- Starting Pitching - (5 deep)
- Bullpen - (6-7 deep)
- Bench - (5-6 deep)
- Management, Minors, Whatever Else that hasn't been covered

I'm going to look at each guy, his contract, and whether we should keep him, lose him or if the position is already open, then who should/could be the replacement. Let me say right off, this isn't what the Cubs could do in a world where money was no object. I'm trying to look at it through what I believe the Cubs can afford & what I believe Jim Hendry and the Cubs brass values in their players. It's more of a what you can expect next year deal rather than a why don't we just get the best player at every position thing. So here it goes:

Catcher - Michael Barrett
Contract Status - Arbitration eligible, $1.55 million last year, expected 2005 deal in the $2 - 3 million range
As this fella so eloquently put it, Barrett is Hendry's white whale. He's been infatuated by the guy for years and well it certainly paid off last year. So kudos to Jim Hendry, as Barrett was a huge surprise offensively. At 28 we should still expect some improvement, not to mention he was originally drafted as a shortstop and was converted to catcher only in 1995, so I think it's reasonable to assume his decline won't be as bad as most catchers once he reaches 30. That all being said, last year was a career year for Barrett so Hendry should really be looking to get a much better bat as a backup catcher than Paul Bako. Defensively he just always looks out of place to me and his ability to call a game seems to be questioned by Maddux and Prior. Well not publicly but the one time Barrett caught Maddux, there was a lot of shaking off and looks of disgust by Maddux and once Bako started catching Prior in September his ERA went back to his superhuman levels, although more of that can be attributed to him finding his release point in my opinion. Anyway the Cubs will not be doing anything here other than resigning Barrett, so let's hope we see more of last year's Barrett.
Potential Replacements None, Barrett's staying

1st base - Derek Lee
Contract Status - Signed through 2006, $7 million next year
Well his defense is just as good as they say, the Win Shares system shows him only behind Todd Helton among NL first basemen. Offensively, um, yeah that was disappointing. The Friendly Confines were rather nice to him. but away from Wrigley he was quite mediocre. Look at these splits:

2003
Road: .297/.388/.591
Home: .242/.371/.419

So get him away from pitcher friendly Pro Player, not to mention the wind howling out most of last year and we should have ourselves the 4th best first basemen in the NL behind Helton, Pujols, and Thome, right? Not quite:

2004
Road: .273/.339/.480
Home: .282/.371/.528

His numbers did go up at home but we was quite bad away from Wrigley and if you could figure out why, then let me know. All I can think of is that he seems to perform better at night than during the day and that Dusty's, "you can't walk across the plate" mantra seriously put a damper on his OBP which is where most of his dropff can be attributed to. He ended up about 8th among NL first basemen and well that's not what we were expecting. So let's hope we get the guy who was supposed to hit 40 HR's while sporting a nice, fat .380 OBP.
Potential Replacements None, Lee will be staying.

2nd base - Open
Contract Status - Open
The Grudz/ Walker combo was rather effective last year, ranking somewhere between 6th & 8th among NL position players. Of course Walker was around 4th when he was starting all by himself last year and his defense was better than you think. Since he's the exact kind of player this team needed all season, someone who WANTED to get on base and not just slug homers, resigning him is probably our most cost effective strategy. There are a bunch of others who I wouldn't mind signing or trading for if the opportunity arises. Grudzielanek at age 34 should be shown the door. If you sign him to play the bench you know Baker wil use him way too much. Thanks for the last 2 years Grudz, love the name, but we can do better. The replacements are in my pseudo order of preference/expectations.
Potential Replacements Todd Walker, Jeff Kent, Mark Bellhorn, Placido Polanco, Mark Grudzielanek

Shortstop - Open
Contract Status - Open
We traded for a potential Hall of Famer and everyone thought we'd run away with the wild card. That certainly didn't work out. Still a great trade as we gave up very little for Garciaparra and hopefully he liked enough of Chicago to come back. His numbers are no longer in the 1.000 OPS range but by OPS he'd still would have ranked 3rd among all shorstops last year and first in the NL. His defense is a question mark but I think our pitching staff strikes out enough people where Garciaparra's offense outweighs those concerns. Plus other than maybe Renteria there's no one all that attractive out there. The talk is he's willing to take a one year Pudge like prove I'm still valuable deal with incentives, which would make signing him a no-brainer in my opinion. The one thing the Cubs should not do is offer him arbitration, he made $11.5 million last year and he would accept it in a heartbeat and I think it's more likely he'll get a deal at a base around $7-8 million with a lot of incentives. Either that or someone signs him long-term for way too much and we forget about him.
Potential Replacements Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Neifi Perez (You think I'm kidding), Omar Vizquel, Christian Guzman (if we get really desperate)

3rd base -Aramis Ramirez
Contract Status - Arbitration eligible, $6 million last year, expected 2005 deal in the $8-10 million range
Well first let's talk about his defense, his errors went down from 33 to 10 and more importantly every time he got a ball, my butt didn't clench up fearing he'd throw it into the first base stands. Dusty said last year that once they got him into training camp, they'd fix his footwork which leads to his throwing and well it worked. Some of it can be attributed to Derek Lee I'm sure but not 23 errors worth. His range is still his range and well he's not going to win any gold gloves but at least his defense is no longer a nightmare.

Offensively it was between him and Alou for team MVP, and since I really don't like Alou, my vote goes to Ramirez. The best thing is most of his splits don't show any warning signs, he was better at home than on the road but it wasn't drastic (1.000 OPS at Wrigley, .900 on the road). At 26 (let's hope that's right), we should expect greatness from him for the next 4-6 years.
Potential Replacements None, Ramirez will stay and sign a four to five year extension with option years unless Scott Boras is his agent. Personally I'd love to make a run at Troy Glaus but no reason to risk it when you have Ramirez already there.

Summary:The Cubs have open spots up the middle at second and short, and I think it will look a lot like the Cubs of last year with Walker and Garciaparra. A rebound year by Derek Lee and it might be one of the best in the league. Many think defense is the most important thing at second and short but I think with our high strikeout pitchers and with Clement probably leaving, it won't mean that much. Prior and Wood strike out a ton and are flyball pitchers. Zambrano strikes out a ton but is a groundball pitcher. Maddux use to be a groundball pitcher but not so much anymore, which leaves us our 5th starter. Clement was a groundball pitcher, if Glendon Rusch takes his place, he's pretty much neutral. Not to mention you could just sign backups who are defensive wizards. We're looking at somewhere between $30 to $35 million on our infield next year, with the chance at being one of the best offensively in the league.

AL Awards Race

2004-11-02T10:46:00.000-08:00

My AL picks, but first I forgot a category in my NL picks last week.

NL Executive of the Year

1. John Schuerholz
2. Walt Jocketty
3. Gerry Hunsicker
Honorable Mention : Paul DePodesta

Wacky category since the job of a GM should be judged in it's long-term effectiveness. But Schuerholz once again had the cajones to make the changes necessary to keep the Braves on top, mostly with the J.D. Drew trade, plus the Kevin Millwood for Estrada trade from a year ago paid off as well. Jocketty did a good job getting Reggie Sanders and a few no name pitchers who kept the ball in the park for their defense to catch and the Larry Walker deal was brilliant. Hunsicker (or the owner Drayton McClane) talked Clemens out of retirement and the big Beltran deal. DePodesta made some bold moves at the trade deadline and the Dodgers will be contenders for awhile now. There's not much stock in this award personally, but those are my thoughts.

AL Executive of the Year

1. Terry Ryan
2. Theo Epstein
3. Bill Stoneman
Honorable Mention : Dave Dombrowski

Terry Ryan keeps winning in Minnesota with a much more minimal budget than Billy Beane has ever had. Say what you want about competition, the team is doing their job and he keeps making almost all the right moves (Nathan for Pierzynski, losing Mientkiewicz for Morneau, etc, etc). Epstein and Bill James are proving quite the tandem and who knew that Garciaparra deal would work out so well, huh? Stoneman got Guerrero, Colon and Escobar to sign while still developing a wonderful minor league system that's contributing at the major league level. Dave Dombrowski turned one of the worst teams around to respectability and somehow got Pudge to sign with the Tigers.

AL Manager of the Year (should be known as Manager of the Team that the Media Thought Would Suck)

1. Buck Showalter
2. Ron Gardenhire
3. Mike Scioscia
Honorable Mention : Terry Francona, Joe Torre

All those managers had to deal with injuries and a multitude of other distractions to get their teams up to respecability. Showalter gets the nod for the biggest improvement though.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Bobby Crosby
2. Zack Greinke
3. Shingo Takatsu (35 year old Rookie?)
Honorable Mention: Justin Morneau

Lew Ford got screwed and apparently doesn't qualify, much like the NL, do we have to pick? If healthy I think Joe Mauer would have run away with it. Mauer and Greinke will be All-Stars one day, Crosby and Morneau will have stiffer competition at their positions.

AL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Curt Schilling
3. Brad Radke
Honorable Mention : Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Buehrle, Pedro Martinez

I spelled out my criteria in the NL awards, but I made a HUGE mistake. Total Batters Faced is NOT a good criteria as a pitcher could rank high here by allowing a bunch of hits and walks, so I've changed my focus to WHIP (Walks + Hits Divided by Innings Pitched) and Innings Pitched. Anyway you look at it, Santana should win it unanimously. He led the league in ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP and was 2nd in Innings Pitched, and 4th in K/BB ratio. Yeah I think that deserves it. A lot of people think Rivera deserves the 3rd spot but I think Francisco Rodriguez was a better pitcher than him last year. I was surprised to see how good a year Mark Buehrle had.

AL MVP

1. Vladimir Guerrero
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Gary Sheffield
4. Miguel Tejada
5. David Ortiz
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Ichiro Suzuki
9. Mark Teixeria
10. Melvin Mora
Honorable Mention (pick any of these for your #9 and #10's): Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Carlos Guillen, Hank Blalock, Johan Santana

The hardest one to pick of all the awards in my opinion. Manny led in OPS and HR's, Sheffield led in Win Shares, Tejada led in RBI's, Vlad was really, really close in all and played in a pitcher's park (as did Sheffield). So why give it to Guerrero? That last week of the season was absolutely amazing but I don't think he deserves it just for that. I mean, cause he turned it on the last week of the season cause the Angels couldn't put the division away in mid-September against the Blue Jays and White Sox mean more than Manny and the Red Sox going crazy in August and cruising to their wild card berth? No...(I feel like I'm talking myself out of this). The reason for me is that Vlad (or Pedro as the AngelFan wife so delightfully calls him after the guy in "Major League") had to carry the offense a little bit more than the other guys. The Red Sox and Yanks are All-Star teams masking as franchises while the Angels had to survive through injuries to Glaus (who may have been the MVP if he stayed healthy) and Garrett (missed 2 months and his ailment sapped all his power). I follow the Angels somewhat so take it with a grain of salt but it seemed to me he carried the team all year and you know what I just like the guy. So live with it....

Carlos Beltran Update

2004-10-30T10:13:00.000-07:00

WARNING...The AngelFan wife has taken over my blog.

I live in L.A., for those who don't know, and this little tidbit was on the front of the sports page.

The Angels plan to cut ties with Troy Glaus and pursue Carlos Beltran.

And you all thought I was crazy when I wrote this. With Appier, Glaus, Percival, Sele leaving and the probability of declining Russ Ortiz's option the Angels will lose $41.5 million off their books next year, not to mention another $3 million when they trade Jose Guillen away. Throw in a bunch of extra revenue from 2 playoff games and a new attendence record and I think the Angels won't be cutting all that much payroll as people think. The paper also says their biggest priorities this offseason are starting pitching and center field. (For those unaware, they're moving Garrett Anderon back to LF, keeping Erstad at first base and inserting Dallas McPherson at 3B). They also will probably make a run at Pedro Martinez.

Next year's lineup possibility:
Eckstein
Beltran
Guerrero
Anderson
DH (Combo Davanon, Quinlan, Kotchman or a signee)
McPherson
Erstad
Molina
Kennedy

You could move Erstad to the leadoff spot and drop Eckstein to 8th, also Figgins will be super-subbing again, probably starting at 2B until Kennedy recovers from his knee injury.

If that happens and they sign Pedro,(starting staff of Pedro, Colon, Escobar, Lackey & Washburn), the Angelfan wife may have bragging rights for the longest time. Yuck!!!

Cutting ties with Glaus although unexpected means their is another marquee free agent out there, one who will end up being a much better signing than the supposed third base trophy that is Adrian Beltre. Mark my words, Troy Glaus's next 5 years will be better than Adrian Beltre's. (Not accounting for injuries....no one can predict those unless it involves Ken Griffey's hamstrings)

Yankee Wish List

2004-10-27T17:17:00.000-07:00

The stupidity has already started, where so-called journalists concoct the craziest rumors based off nothing more than what will sell a paper or get them readers. Once again we'll be subjected to who the Yankees may acquire this offseason cause they didn't win it all. Apparently when you're the Yankees you can just pick and choose who you want, tell a team this is who you're getting and then sign over a check. Well folks, it isn't happening anymore, if it ever did?

The Yanks have NOTHING but their money now, no prospects, no tradeable players, NOTHING. All they can hope for are to sign some free agents and with the rules of free agency, that means only 2 at most top level free agents.

Matsui, Rivera and Vasquez are their ONLY tradeable commodities and Vasquez is the only one going anywhere, if the Yanks eat most of his contract. The article I linked up says the Yankees should go after Tim Hudson over Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. Of course they should go after Tim Hudson, then Johan Santana, then Mark Prior, and then Roy Oswalt. But they're not going to get him, cause they have NOTHING to offer, to anyone. No 3 way deal, no 4 way deal, nothing!!!!

The only Yankee who will get traded this off-season is Vasquez and I'll be surprised if it lands them anyone substantial, the only way their starting staff gets better next year will be through free agency.

The LaRussa bashing continues

2004-10-26T19:19:00.000-07:00

Not to pummel poor Tony LaRussa anymore, but I read this article at slate.com and I found this observation rather appropriate.

The Cardinals arrived in Boston flat and ill-prepared—their manager Tony La Russa once again seemed more interested in being the smartest person in the room than in winning baseball games. How else to explain his preposterous use of Jason Marquis? The scheduled starter in what is now a pivotal Game 4 has, already in this Series, been used for one inning of relief and as a pinch runner. In that latter capacity, Marquis fell flat on his face while trying to run from first to second, then was lucky not to break an ankle in a home-plate collision with Boston catcher Jason Varitek. Don't be surprised if La Russa trots out Marquis to sing the National Anthem Tuesday night.

The line Tony La Russa once again seemed more interested in being the smartest person in the room than in winning baseball games ringed true to me. There is something to be said about making aggressive moves in the playoffs and something to be said about just making moves. He had already abused his bench to this point, but still had Hector Luna, John Mabry, Yadier Molina, and Roger Cedeno (who pinch hit for the next batter). Now I get the idea for pinch running Matheny, but what was wrong with Luna, he seems to have some speed and Marquis is obviously no gazelle on the basepaths. Just plain silliness in my opinion.

One of the many reasons I don't like him as a manager.

NL Awards Race

2004-10-26T10:31:00.001-07:00

I missed out on the Internet Baseball Awards that Baseball Prospectus runs every year, but these would have been my picks.

NL Coach of the Year (should be known as Manager of the Team that the Media Thought Would Suck)

1. Jim Tracy
2. Bobby Cox
3. Phil Garner
Honorable Mention : Dusty Baker

What? No Tony LaRussa!!! Yes, since I think penciling in the same lineup every day, trotting out the same rotation every 5 days and using the same guys out of the bullpen all year require all the skill of a monkey, Tony LaRussa gets no votes from me. Most will laugh that Dusty gets a mention but the team had more injuries than most any other team in the league and he was able to keep them competitive, getting a ton out of a pretty crappy bench and a poorly constructed bullpen. Of course he also continues to use Mike Remlinger against lefties and not righties, so no one is perfect. Tracy gets the overall nod for keeping together a patchwork starting staff, keeping the team focused after the July 31st trades which apparently got rid of the heart and soul in LoDuca, and just general good in game management in my opinion. Cox once again did it with smoke and mirrors this year and Garner kept a team focused that easily could have given up, also utilizing a very patchwork bullpen and starting staff.

NL Cy Young
1. Randy Johnson
2. Ben Sheets
3. Roger Clemens
Honorable Mention: Carlos Zambrano, Oliver Perez, Carl Pavano

I look at only a few things when it comes to Cy Young. First anybody not in the top 10 in ERA is automatically disqualified as ERA usually encompasses enough to get a good idea on who dominated the league this year. Then it's K/BB rate, Total Batters Faced (saving the bullpen), Ballpark Factors and most importantly Quality Starts. The Big Unit led the league in quality starts, 2nd in K/BB rate, 3rd in Total Batters Faced, and 2nd in ERA while pitching about half his games in a hitters park. I don't care that the D'Backs lineup consisted of a combo of AAA and over-the-hill players. Here's a chart in my selected categories of the top 6:

NAME_________ERA_________QS_______K/BB________TBF________BF
R. Johnson____2.27(2nd)___26(1st)___6.59(2nd)___964(3rd)___Hitter's
B. Sheets______2.70(3rd)___24(3rd)___8.25(1st)___937(4th)___Pitcher's
R. Clemens____2.98(5th)___23(5th)___2.76(13th)__878(17th)__Neutral
C. Zambrano__2.75(4th)___22(7th)___2.32(18th)__887(14th)__Hitter's
Oliver Perez___2.98(6th)___21(12th)__2.95(9th)___805(31st)__Pitcher's
Carl Pavano___3.00(7th)___23(5th)___2.84(12th)__909(9th)___Pitcher's

I also should add that if I could find a good place to get HR/9 inning I'd look at that as well. Jake Peavy who led the league in ERA, just didn't pitch enough to be considered. As you can see by the chart, Johnson and Sheets were easily the two best this year by my own wacky standards, Clemens and Zambrano were a close 3rd and 4th, while Perez and Pavano got too much help from their parks in my opinion.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Khalil Greene
2. Jason Bay
3. Akinori Otsuka
Honorable Mention: Mike Gonzalez (I think he qualifies as a rookie)

UPDATED:Do I have to pick? Greene played rather good defense and hit the ball occassionally and ranked 5th in Win Shares in the NL at shortsop(behind Rollins, Izturis, Wilson and Furcal). I originally skipped over Jason Bay as he didn't show up when I sorted by rookies as he didn't have enough at-bats to qualify but he did enough when he did play to get him the #2 spot and it would be #1 if he played a little more. I had MIke Gonzalez at #3 but he gets bumped leaving Otsuka there who had an excellent season in middle relief and could easily become an effective closer one day in my opinion.

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds
2. Albert Pujols
3. Adrien Beltre
4. Scott Rolen
5. Jim Edmonds
6. J.D. Drew
7. Bobby Abreu
8. Todd Helton
9. Lance Berkman
10. Mark Loretta

It always gets sketchy when you near the bottom of the list, but those are my picks. Anyone who thinks Barry Bonds doesn't deserve it should be shot. OPS is a good way to get started on these, I also like to look at defensive win shares, ballpark factors, RBI's(they may not be predictable but they certainly have a ton of value during the season), and if it's close I'll take batting average over OBP. Believe it or not Beltre got the nod over Rolen in defense and not to mention playing half your games in Dodger Stadium on a bad ankle and way too many big hits over the course of the season, gives him the #3 nod. Helton gets dropped cause of the Coors effect as does Berkman and the Juice Box although it played as a neutral park this year. Loretta is probably a surprise but he was 2nd in defensive win shares at 2nd in the NL behind the surprising Jeff Kent (may be worth a call from the Cubs this off-season) and head and shoulders over all other 2nd baseman in offense. He ranked 8th in overall Win Shares in the NL and 16th in OPS, throw in ballpark factors and he's worth the mention.

My AL choices sometime later this week.

Schedule Release

2004-10-26T10:15:00.000-07:00

We're in a good 2-3 week stretch of boringness when it comes to baseball, there's the World Series but since the Cards are in it, I just can't bring myself to care, then we get awards the next few weeks and the commissioner office wants teams to keep the news slow, so as not to take away from these events. Not to mention most teams won't sign anyone until after December 7th(the deadline for offering arbitration) to see if they are going to cost them a draft pick. In the meantime the Cubs released their 2005 schedule today and it begins April 4th in Arizona. Good news for me as I may be able to make a trip out there. Other notable games:

Home Opener April 8th versus Milwaukee Brewers

Interleague:
Host Toronto June 6-8
Host Boston June 10-12
Host White Sox May 20-22
At New York Yankees June 17-19
At Comiskey June 24-26

They finish the season against the Astros on back-to back weekends and their last game versus St. Louis this year is Sept. 18th. That's much better than this year's craziness when we were done with St. Louis I think by July, the Astros by August and played the Brewers 40 times in something like 38 days.

UPDATE: Here's the link to a calendar of the tentative schedule

Free Agency and Roster Rules

2004-10-25T18:42:00.000-07:00

This is my compilation of free agency and arbitration rules. I will add on to this as I discover more information:

Arbitration
A player may not make less than the league minimum of $200,000.

Players with one or two years of service time and players between two and three years of service time (except for the 17% with the most service time) can have their contracts renewed automatically by the team if they cannot come to an agreement. When renewing a contract, a team cannot reduce a player's pay by more than 20% from the prior year or 30% from the year before that.

Players with 3, 4, or 5 years of service time and the top 17% of the 2 year players may opt for arbitration in order to come to a contract.

The club' proposal may not be less than 80% of the player's salary the previous year. The exception here is that if a player won an arbitration award the prior year that resulted in a 50% or greater salary increase, there is no maximum paycut allowed in the proposal.

Arguments that are not allowed in an arbitration hearing include the state of the team's finances, previous offers made during salary negotiations between the player and the team, any press comments or testimonials with the exception of media-supported awards like the MVP Award or salaries in other sports or occupations.

A player with a non-guaranteed contract or an arbitration award may be released up until the 15th day of spring training with 30 days' pay or from the 16th day of spring training until the opening of the season with 45 days' pay.

When a player is claimed on waivers, the new team takes on the contract. When a player is released in the middle of a guaranteed contract, the new team only has to pay league minimum with the old team footing the rest of the bill.

Free Agency and Compensation
A player that has accrued 6 complete years or more of service time at the end of a season and does not have a contract is eligible for filing for free agency, after which the player can sign with any team he wants.

To receive compensation for a player that signs with another team, the team must offer the player salary arbitration.

The team must offer salary arbitration to the player by December 7 or will not be allowed to negotiate with or sign the player until the following May 1. After arbitration is offered, the player has until December 19 to either accept or refuse salary arbitration. If it is refused, the player can only negotiate with the club until January 7th, after which no more negotiation can take place until May 1.

The compensation formula is based off a negotiated formula, heavy on triple crown stats, for the previous 2 seasons. Type A players are those that rank in the top 30% of his position. Type B players are those that rank below top 30% but still in the top 50%. Type C players are those that rank in the top 60% but not the top 50%.

A type players fetch the 1st-round draft pick of teams in the top half of W-L record or a 2nd-round draft pick of teams in the bottom half of W-L record and an additional pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. B types don't get the sandwich pick and C type players fetch a sandwich between the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The higher the player's ranking in the compensation formula, the higher priority the old team gets in acquiring draft picks.

Something that's never mentioned is that there are still limits to the type of free agents that teams may sign.

If there are 14 or less type A and B players available, no team may sign more than 1 type A or B player. If there are 15-38 available A and B players, no team may sign more than 2. From 39-62 this becomes 3. The club quota increases accordingly for higher totals of available free agents. There is no maximum allowed for type C free agents. Lastly, a team can sign up to as many type A and B free agents as they've lost, regardless of the above quota.

Major League free agents come with an automatic no-trade clause until after the next June 15.

Rule 5 Draft

Once a player is signed by an organization either through the draft or as a free agent, the clock immediately starts ticking on the club's exclusive rights to the player.

After 3 complete minor league seasons (or 4 if the player was younger than 19 on the preceding June 5), a player comes to one of the major crossroads of his career. At this point, a team has to decide if they want to sign the player to a major-league contract (adding him to the 40-man roster which consists of 25 active players and 15 on optional assignment) or if they want to let the other teams have a shot at him.

Players that have the minor league seasons required and are not added to the 40-man roster are eligible for baseball's Rule 5 draft. A player can be drafted by another organization for a sum of $50,000. The catch, however, is that if the player is ever removed from his new team's 25-man roster during the next season, he has to be offered back to the original club for half the price, or $25,000.

A player not on the 40-man roster and not taken in the Rule 5 draft remains under contract with his current organization. If the player has less than 6 years of minor league service, he can elect to be a minor league free agent, thus getting out of Rule 5 consideration for all intents and purposes.

Service Time

Service time is accrued for every day spent in the majors. If a player spends 20 days or less of the season on optional assignment, the player is given service time for the entire season. This is to prevent various shenanigans if calling up a player at the end of April to buy an extra year of rights.

Service time allows the player more authority over how his contract can be assigned.

A player with 10 years or more Major League service, the last 5 being with the team he's currently on may not be assigned to another team without his consent.

A player with 5 years or more Major League service cannot be optioned to the minors without his permission. He must be offered his release. In the case of a player signed to a Major League contract as a free agent, and thus almost certainly signed to a guarantee contract, still has to be paid according to the provisions of his contract.

A player with 3 years or more Major League service may not be removed from the 40-man roster without his permission. The player can opt to be released immediately or at the end of the season.

A player may elect to become a free agent whenever he is removed from the 40-man roster starting with the second removal of his career. The player may opt to not become a free agent but to become a free agent after the season.

A player with 5 years or more Major League service that is traded in the middle of a multi-year contract may, during the offseason, require his new team to either trade him or let him become a free agent. If the player is eventually traded, he's not eligible to demand a trade again under the current contract and loses free agency rights for 3 years.

The 40-Man Roster and Options

Now that the player is on the 40-man roster, another clock starts ticking. He's signed to what amounts to a major-league contract, but the organization has a limited number of seasons in which to keep the player on the team for good. A player can be removed from the 40-man roster at any time, but removing a player from the 40-man roster results in the player having to pass through waivers.

Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the parent club can send him down to the minors on "optional assignment" in 3 separate seasons. You don't need to actually be on the 25-man roster for an option year to be used; being on the 40-man roster in spring training and optioned to the minors before the season is enough to make the season count as an option year. If a player is never sent down, however, he doesn't use an option year.

Also, despite it being a major league contract, the minimum for players on the 40-man roster and not the 25-man roster is $37,000 plus collective cost of living increases since 1999.

After the three option years are up, a player must pass through waivers to be placed on optional assignment.

When a player is designated for assignment, the player is essentially in limbo. He doesn't count against any of the roster sizes and this is used while you either try to trade the player or get him to accept a minor league assignment.

When a player is placed on waivers, other teams have a shot at claiming him, in order of worst record in the same league to best record in same league to worst record in opposing league to best team in opposing league. For the first month of the season, the W-L record of the previous season is used. When a team places a waiver claim on a player, the new team is subject to the same option rules. For example, if the Red Sox claim Joe Schmoe off waivers because he was out of options when the Devil Rays sent him down, the Red Sox would then have still to pass Schmo through waivers to send him down to their own minor league team.

There are two disabled lists in the majors. The 15-day disabled list forces teams to keep players out for a minimum of 15 days and does not count against the 25-man roster. The 60-day or Emergency disabled list requires a minimum of 60 days on the shelf and doesn't count against either the 25-man or 40-man roster.

World Series Prediction....

2004-10-25T10:47:00.000-07:00

I told you baseball playoff predicting is way too difficult. When this all started these were my original picks:

Division Series
Astros over Braves
Cardinals over Dodgers
Red Sox over Angels
Twins over Yankees

LCS
Red Sox over Twins
Astros over Cardinals

World Series
Astros over Red Sox

I then learned the Yankees set an MLB record with 61 come from behind wins which is one of the markers I like to look at during the playoffs and I said that I would have predicted the Yanks over the Twins and then Red Sox over Yanks and Red Sox over Astros.

When the LCS came around I made some more predictions, this time picking the Yanks over the Red Sox (who knew bionic man was going to pitch again?) and the Cards over the Astros. Well there's the recap, now here's the prediction for what it's worth. (And yes I know it's late but these are my thoughts before the series)

This one is a no-brainer, beating the Yankees removes the monkey the size of King Kong off of the Red Sox back. Plus their pitching is better and Tony LaRussa will hopefully never win another title in my day. If you want to go by positions, then let's do that.

C - Varitek over Matheny
1B - Pujols over Millar/Ortiz
2B - Bellhorn over Womack
SS - Renteria over Cabrera (barely)
3B - Rolen over Mueller
LF - Manny over Taguchi/Sanders
CF - Edmonds over Damon
RF - Walker over Nixon (barely)
DH - Ortiz over Sanders

That's a 5-4 edge for the Cardinals but it's really, really close. The big difference is the Red Sox have no automatic outs in their lineup while the Cards have 2 with Matheny and Womack and a third when Taguchi plays.

Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield versus Williams, Morris, Suppan and either Carpenter or Marquis. It's not that close, throw in the supposed strength of the Cardinals bullpen which has not been a strength particularly with Steve Kline down and the fact that Francona has used his bench quite well so far in these playoffs and all signs indicate a Boston win.

Good, get this curse crap over with.

Red Sox in 6

In other news, check out the documentary on HBO, "9 innings from Ground Zero", excellent stuff.

GET BELTRAN!!

2004-10-21T18:22:00.000-07:00

The Cubs dream this off-season is to get Carlos Beltran which would mean a big jump in payroll probably, one which the Tribune probably won't be approving anytime soon. Not to mention the mess that bringing in a high priced center fielder will cause, as in messing with the minds of Sosa and C-Pat. (Sosa knows he'll be shown the door and C-Pat will have to move positions).

Now I certainly don't think Beltran is worth the $20 million figure that people are throwing around, but evertime I see him in the playoffs, I think he may just get it. Read this article by Eric Neel if you'd like as well. Anyway here's my take.

Possible Suitors
-Yankees $170+ million ALREADY committed in salary next year and they need 2 starting pitchers....just depends how crazy George goes this off-season. My prediction for a Yankees team next year: (Payroll close to $250)

1b - Delgado
2b - Garciaparra (or Kent)
3b - A-Rod
SS - Jeter
LF - Matsui
CF - Beltran
RF - Sheffield
DH - Giambi

SP - Pedro, Brown, Vasquez, Mussina, Milton
RP - Whoever they have now plus Steve Kline

In honesty I think they'll stay out of the Beltran sweepstakes, unless they are positive Giambi can play 1B and they can move Bernie to DH. Eric Milton is someone they need unless they can talk the D'Backs out of the Big Unit but they couldn't do it at the trade deadline, so I don't see why they could now. That still leaves them with a starting pitcher slot open and they are in desperate need of an ace on that staff. Sad thing is whatever George decides sets the market for the rest of the league.

Angels
Word from their camp is Erstad is staying put at 1B (bad move), Jose Guillen is getting traded (check in on that one Hendry), Anderson's moving back to LF. Guess what means, they have a CF position open and Arte isn't afraid to spend. What they really need is starting pitching, so I expect them to make a move for Pedro Martinez.

Now what they SHOULD do, is move Darin to CF, Anderson to LF, trade Guillen (to the Cubs) and let Kotchman and McPherson play first and third(letting Glaus go) and go after 2 starting pitchers(or at least one and wait for Jared Weaver in 2006). If they sign Beltran, I'll never hear the end of it next year from the AngelFan wife.

Mariners
If they don't decide to go to complete rebuild mode, they probably have the money to make the deal. They worry me....

Phillies
No idea what their financial situation is but Wade is willing to pull the trigger on these things and they need a CF.

Astros
Beltran hopefully is overpricing himself for the Astros. Kent will be gone next year(they have a 2B prospect I believe) and Berkman is in line for a huge deal. They'll definitely be making a pitch though.

Dodgers
Don't know their financial situation as well, but they could certainly use him.

Giants
I know Brian Sabean cherishes guys who play both sides of the diamond (offense and defense), so he's definitely someone they will covet. Once again finances may get in the way though.

Cubs
Hendry has already said he's interested. Beltran put up huge numbers in Wrigley so he should be interested. Backload his contract for when Sosa comes off the books and we may have a chance. Plus Hendry is one of the few not intimidated by uber-agent Scott Boras. Read all above about finances.

Minor League Factor

2004-10-21T18:15:00.000-07:00

I've been checking out prospects a little lately (basically to see who we may be trading). This article about Cubs Minor League Player of the Year (rather Organization) Brian Dopirak was interesting. He's a 20 year old first baseman who just hit a crap load of home runs in single A ball at Lansing. My favorite quote (and one that should be plastered on the Cubs clubhouse):

To that end, Dopirak is in Arizona working on his biggest weakness at the plate: discipline. He's hoping that playing for the Mesa Solar Sox will help him improve that aspect of his game. "My pitch slection, being patient at the plate, trying to slow things down," said Dopirak, who has hit a pair of homers in 31 at-bats. "I need to work for my pitch and when I get my pitch, not to miss it. I don't want to miss a mistake.

"That's what I'm focusing on now in the Fall League, getting into a good hitter's count and not missing my pitch."

Can we send all the Cubs hitters to the Arizona Fall League?

Wavin Wendell waved home

2004-10-21T18:06:00.000-07:00

That's old news...the new news is that Chris Speier is our new 3rd base coach. You can get the full article by clicking on Speier's name there, but here are some quotes from the article I liked.

And the difference between Kim and Speier?

"I don't see much difference at all," said Baker, who was in Arizona watching the Cubs prospects in the Arizona Fall League. "Chris will probably get instant respect because he's played so long in the big leagues."

Read between the lines and you get, "I had absolutely nothing to do with this!"

Then there's Hendry's take:

"It's a tough job, and it's a job based on split-second decisions and knowing your personnel," said Hendry of the third base coach. "A lot of things go into it. Nobody knows except internally on that given day who may be fresh, who has a hamstring problem. You also have to go on knowledge from your scouts."

Read between those lines and you get..."Wendall Kim SUCKED and now we have somebody who's hopefully paying attention."

I still recall the Cards game where Ramirez had just gotten back from his groin issues and Wavin Wendell sent him home on some blooper to RF and he got thrown out by a mile. I'm assuming Hendry is still bitter about it as we all are.

The other amusing thing is that Baker is in Arizona to check out the prospects in the Arizona Fall League, I assume only to let Hendry know that none of them will ever get a chance to play under him.

Free Agent list

2004-10-19T17:44:00.000-07:00

This guy has a good free agent list sorted by position if you're curious. He also has the rules of free agency and arbitration in the bottom right. It's not quite up to date as some players options have been picked up or declined, but it's a good tool.

Here's another one listed by team

Offseason thoughts

2004-10-19T17:38:00.000-07:00

The big "What the Cubs need to do" article is coming soon, around when the World Series ends. Here are some random thoughts:

- I think Sammy is going to have a big year next year. He's going to be a FA next off-season unless you trade him, which almost has no chance of happening. I'm sure his people will inform him that he's playing for a new contract and the Cubs have no intention of picking up his option. Hence watch him be on his best behavior next year, saying all the right things, putting up hopefully huge numbers in the hope that in some way the Cubs will pick up his option since there's no way in hell he's getting that kind of money from someone else and even if they don't, he's put himself in position to get a nice FA contract for the next 3 years.

- I didn't think we'd have a chance at getting Beltran especially with his record playoff run, but if we backload his contract we just may have a chance. Offer him a greater overall contract with the 1st year at somewhere between $10 to $13 mil and then backload the contract(when Sosa leaves) so the overall value is in the $14 to $15 mil per year range. Not a terrible idea. (and he'll probably land something in the $15-17 mil per year range in my opinion and that range goes up everytime I see another playoff homer). To be honest though, by year 6 or 7 of this deal, if we do backload it, we'll probably be regretting it as he's destined to start his decline (like Sosa) by that point. We will have him though for a nice 4-5 year stretch though of mostly his best years.

- I know we were all very hurt by Hawkins last year, but the fact of the matter is 99% of closers, began their careers as something else, either a relief pitcher or a starting pitcher(actually they probably all were starting pitchers at one point).
Finding next year's closer, means we should look at all available candidates and not just those who have closing experience. Who you'd convert from a starter to a closer, I'm not sure but here are some relief pitchers I like a lot. I generally like guys who strike out a ton of guys (over 9 K/9 rate and over a 3 on K/BB rate)

B.J. Ryan 3.49 K/BB 12.62 K/9
Brendan Donnelly 3.73 K/BB 12.00 K/9
Juan Rincon 3.31 K/BB 11.63 K/9
Mike Gonzalez 9.17 K/BB 11.42 K/9
R. Betancourt 4.22 K/BB 10.26 K/9
A. Otsuka 3.35 K/BB 10.13 K/9
S. Linebrink 3.19 K/BB 8.89 K/9

Now none of these guys are available as far as I know, B.J. Ryan is mediocre versus righties but lights out versus lefties, Donnelly is 33 but hasn't shown any signs of decline yet, Rincon K/9 doubled this year after 3 years of mediocrity. That being said those are a few guys you can look at and there are plenty more out there. Scott Shields in Anaheim has some good numbers too.

Anyway the closer can be found in a variety of places, let's hope Hendry is looking.

LCS playoff guesses

2004-10-14T16:31:00.000-07:00

Well I went 3 out of 4 in the Division Series and it would have been 4 out 4 if I knew the Yankees had set an MLB record weith 61 come from behind wins.

It's a little late but here's my LCS thoughts:

Houston vs. St. Louis
Well I was most definitely wrong about Tracy outmanaging LaRussa. My apologies to the Cardinals and their faithful. I know the Dodger starting staff is in disarray but there's no reason to bring a guy back on 3 days rest who sucked the first time(in this case Odalis Perez). Since he hasn't done it all year and his name isn't "The Big Unit" or Schilling, I don't see the point. He already had enough doubt in his mind by being shelled in Game 1, now you throw in that he has to think about throwing on one less day of rest. Oh well...the better team won so now 'saber' folks we'll be happy.

Then there is Phil Garner who is definitely in the 'outside the box' mode of managerial thinking but he's not really doing it in a smart way. He brings back both Clemens and Oswalt on 3 days rest both of whom can't get out of the 5th inning after throwing a bunch of pitches and struggling with their control. So what does he do in Game 1 of the NLCS...brings back Brandon Backe on 3 days rest who can't get out of the 5th inning and struggles with his control. Now it gets better cause he was planning on using Pete Munro to pitch Game 2 who's nothing but rested. WHY NOT JUST PITCH HIM GAME 1 and let everyone else fall on their normal day of rest.

St. Louis had a chance to beat these guys in the regular season and rolled over to rest their starters. If their is such a thing as baseball gods they will exact their revenge. Unfortunately Phil Garner spotted the Cards the first 2 games and there is only so much cosmic forces can accomplish.

Cards in 6

Boston vs. New York
Just read Bill Simmons over at ESPN Page 2 and that should give you everything you need to know about this series.

This should have been the Red Sox's year to beat the Yankees and then Curt Schilling tore a tendon in his ankle handling a routine grounder in Game 1 versus the Angels. Series over...curse continues.
Yankees in 6 or less

That leaves a New York/St. Louis World Series and they might as well put Tampa Bay versus Montreal cause I could care less about either team. I guess the Yankees will win it.

Playoff notes edition

2004-10-08T15:38:00.000-07:00

- I told you all about the Angels and their defense.... Okay well I didn't expect them to be that bad.

- OBP and patience are great and all but WOW does it make for boring baseball. Game 2 of the Angels/Red Sox was a 4 hour marathon of nothing but people LOB and 3-2 counts with lots of foul pitches. Yuck!!!

- Not finding stats for stuff can suck sometimes. Apparently the Yankees lead the league (and set a MLB record) with 61 come from behind wins this year. I suppose I'll stick to my original picks but if I had to do it over, I'd go Yankees over Twins in 5, Red Sox over Yankees in 7, and Red Sox over Astros in 6. Yes the curse is over and the Cubs can stop making excuses now.

- Garner's move to bring in Lidge in the 7th is the kind of stuff I love to see. Sadly it didn't work out for them in the 8th so he'll get roasted for it. But anytime a manager is willing to screw conventional baseball in the playoffs at least I know they get it. Playoff baseball is MUCH different than regular season baseball. The normal rules do not apply.

-Then there's Gardenhire who left Nathan out for 3 innings plus. No problem with that until he walks Cairo. Time to go get him. Loss of control generally means you're tiring. Bet that was a fun plane ride home.

UPDATE
-Then there's Scioscia....who all season has lived with the #1 bullpen in the league without any lefties in the whole pen. So he has Frankie Rodriguez who's into his 3rd inning and has just struck out Manny Ramirez for the 2nd time in the game. So what does he do? Puts in Washburn to face the lefty Ortiz, who promptly puts the 1st pitch into the Green Monster seats. I have no problem with the unconventional thinking of bringing in a starting pitcher, I have an issue when that pitcher is Washburn who pretty much sucks. That was a stupid move and although I can't prove it, as soon as he motioned to the pen, I knew it was a mistake.

Playoff predictor...Division Series version

2004-10-05T16:58:00.000-07:00

I should put a random number generator and assign it to each of the 8 teams and it might be just as reliable as what I'm about to spell out to you. Here's how I usually look at the playoffs.

-First find the teams that have been playing well for longer than a month....a good 2 month stretch or longer is nice
Boston, Houston & St. Louis

- Find teams that have a knack for coming from behind
(2002 - Angels, 2003 - Marlins, 2004 - ????? Dodgers lead the league with 53 but I can't find stats for the rest of the league)

- 2 dominant starters on staff equals trouble for other team
Boston & Houston, Radke has been good this year but he doesn't qualify as dominant. Pedro just barely qualifies Boston.

- Aggressive managing is better than the same old thing works managing
This spells trouble for Cox & LaRussa. Edge to Scioscia, Tracy, Torre and maybe Gardenhire. The jury is still out on Francona & Garner.

-Never go for a team with a bad defense particularly up the middle (CF, 2b, SS & C)
Not sure that applies to anyone this year...it did in 2002 with the Yankees though. The Red Sox improved enough with their trades, Anaheim might be in trouble though. Garrett isn't spectacular in CF, Eckstein doesn't make errors but doesn't get to a lot of balls, they lost A. Kennedy who should always be a Gold Glove candidate, Molina is great though. Yanks might be in trouble as well here.

It's a series of tradeoffs as always, but Boston & Houston are my favorites at the moment.
Here's my bold playoff predictions:

St. Louis vs. Dodgers
Toughest one to call in my opinion, the Dodgers and their remarkable comebacks, great defense plus the fact that Tracy will probably outmanage LaRussa. That being said the Cardinals have had a lights out bullpen, have good to great defense almost everywhere on the diamond and we all know about their offense. The Dodgers limped though to the postseason and their starting pitching is less reliable than the Cardinals.

Cards in 5, winning all of them at home

Houston vs. Atlanta
Houston has played great ball the last 2 months and has 2 GREAT starters. Atlanta has been playing great ball since the All-Star Break and no great starters. Cox still believes what gets you through the regular season works in post-season. I don't know what Garner thinks.

Astros in 4

Boston vs. Anaheim
I have serious rooting interest in the Angels, but Boston has been playing better than anybody the last 2 months and weren't all that bad before that. Since the Angels will have to win 3 straight (games 2-4) to win it in my opinion, I don't see much of a chance for them. Angels had a great last week to mask the fact they played poorly versus the Mariners & Blue Jays in the middle of the month. Don't be fooled.

Red Sox in 4

Minnesota vs. New York
I'm not really sure how this team got the best record, teams must have been playing the pinstripes rather than the team on the field. If Mussina and Brown go crazy they have a chance but that offense will fall back to Earth against the Twins (& Red Sox if they face them). I like this Twins team for whatever reason, especially with the way Santana has been pitching. Solid pen and defense and the mediocre Yankee pitching tells me the Yankees may exit early again this year.

Twins in 5

The Championship Series
Houston vs. St. Louis
St. Louis had a chance to beat these guys in the regular season and rolled over to rest their starters. The baseball gods will exact their revenge.

Astros in 6

Boston vs. Minnesota
Fun matchup and what I think will be a great series to watch. And if Schilling meets up with Santana in a start, that would make it better. That Red Sox offense is a little too good though and the Twins 3 & 4 starters are a bigger dropoff than the Red Sox's.

Red Sox in 7

The World Series
Houston vs. Boston
Until Boston beats New York in the playoffs I'm not betting against any curses. Plus Clemens beating the Red Sox in game seven would just be lovely. The Red Sox fans will have something more to moan about.

Astros in 7

Anything is possible

2004-10-01T01:37:00.000-07:00

Anything is possible....

The last 3 words I have left for the last 3 games of the season.

May the baseball gods be North Siders this weekend
May every A. Miles blooper fall in
May every Jeff Bagwell liner find a Rockies glove
May every K. Wood slider be swung at and missed
May every Brave contract food poisoning
May the Dodgers beat their arch-rivals
May the Cubs not break my heart again.

Go Cubs (he says meekly)

Go Padres, Dodgers, Rockies.....

2004-09-30T14:54:00.000-07:00

officially we can't be eliminated until Saturday at the soonest......I'll attempt to recover this evening for one last desperate attempt this weekend. Let's hope some other teams play spoilers like the Reds did.

Prior though found his groove.....what an absolutely outstanding big game performance. Every Cubs player needs to go to his locker and give them their apologies. He deserved that win today.

What a shame.....nothing to do at this point but win your games and hope some teams help you out.

Therapy....

2004-09-30T01:33:00.000-07:00

This is the only way I can cope. I'm going to wax poetic here a bit, so bear with me...

My gut tells me you just don't recover after a loss like that, much like you don't win game seven last year after blowing that lead in game six , but my heart tells me I have to scrape whatever "fandom" I have left and hope and pray it works out somehow. I've been living and dying with this team for 24+ years(since I was 5) and I know many have been doing it longer. But I've seen and gone through worse like Brant Brown's dropped fly ball in 1998, any year that involved Don Baylor as our manager or Ed Lynch as our GM. This year still has a chance to work out. And maybe some people's definition of being a fan is to bitch about everbody and everyone as soon as things don't go the way they think they should. Well with 4 games left I don't see the point, the cavalry isn't coming.

So until it's truly over, I'm going to go root for my team and if they do pull this out, at least I'll know in my heart that I belong there celebrating with them. The time will come after the season to reflect on what needs to be improved, what could have been done better, but right now it's about one thing and one thing only. BELIEVING!!!

It's corny, it's silly, it's even Disneyesque but I don't see any other alternative at the moment. If I don't believe, and you don't believe, I certainly don't expect the Cubs players to believe. This team didn't give up in April when their best pitcher got sent to the DL for 2 months. They didn't give up in May when Wood and Sosa got sent to the DL. They didn't give up in June when they faced a brutal schedule and promptly went 15-13. They didn't give up in July when they had to start penciling Alex Gonzalez's name back in the lineup. They didn't give up in August even though Sosa struck out something like 1000 times with runners on and they won't give up in September despite blowing 2 9th inning leads to crappy teams. So I certainly don't expect them to give up tomorrow. Yeah it's a tough spot, we have to win all 4 games and possibly a tie-breaker, that's fine, whatever it takes. And if they don't do it, yep, I'll be pissed, things will get thrown, my weekend will be ruined. But I'll pick up my cap, dust it off, unearth my Prior jersey and be ready for Opening Day next year. I will never give up on this team, I will always be a Chicago Cubs fan.

Go kick their ass tomorrow Cubbies!!!!

that blew......

2004-09-29T10:04:00.000-07:00

well that completely ruined my evening, win the FUCKING game today Cubbies!

A Notes Column.....

2004-09-28T16:12:00.000-07:00

A couple of things to mention, none of which require a lot of detail:

- The Angels suspended Guillen for the rest of the season and playoffs. apparently for showing up Scioscia on live television for being taken out for a pinch runner after getting hit in the foot. Everyone thinks there's more to this story and I'm inclined to agree. Guillen must have threatened or done something REALLY, REALLY stupid in the clubhouse to warrant this move. Personally if he did something like that, then you have to appreciate the Angels move, no player is above the team. They say it wasn't a message move but it obviously is. The Angels are my 2nd favorite team, so it's a tough move but more power to them. I still think they can beat the A's(only if they can beat the Rangers though)

- Ichiro's run at the hits record is rather meaningless to me. Don't get me wrong, he's the best leadoff man in baseball, but so many of his hits are of the infield/slap/single variety that they are absolutely NO different than a walk as they don't advance runners more than one base. A matter of fact taking more pitches would be more beneficial in the long run. Give the guy credit, he has an amazing ability to place a baseball with his bat, but MVP, not even close.

-My current award winners without any reasons:
AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Lew Ford

NL MVP: Mr. Bonds
NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson, close 2nd is Ben Sheets (although I think Zambrano or Clemens ends up with it)
NL ROY: Jason Bay

Managers of the Year(Better known as the award for the guy who's in charge of a team that the media thought would suck at the beginning of the year): Buck Showalter, Jim Tracy

- MLB O-zone stat is a joke, please ignore it. Read
this guy if you don't believe me.

- On Friday night, the Dodgers brought in Eric Gagne in the bottom of the 9th with Barry Bonds due up 4th. Gagne walked the 3rd batter, which was soon followed by a trip from Jim Tracy where he was ordered to intentionally walk Mr. Bonds. He then managed to walk J.T. Snow to walk the bases full before Y. Torrealba hit a liner out to LF.

So with arguably the best reliever in the game, you don't trust him to get the final out. You will pay for this scaredy cat move, Mr. Tracy, some day soon. Playing with fear will always catch up to a team, no matter what sport you play. Mark my words on this one....the baseball gods will make the Dodgers pay for this some day soon.

- I've given up being angry at Baker's insistence to keep pitchers out there for 120+ pitches in blowouts, like death and taxes, it's just going to happen, I'll have to accept it.

Cubs/Reds

2004-09-27T16:12:00.000-07:00

Didn't I mention something about not having a letdown? No reason to recall the horrors of the weekend as we still ended up 8-4 on the road trip and in 1st place of the wild card(focus on the positive, focus on the positive). Our last chance to beat up on some chumps:

Some numbers:
Runs Scored: Cubs -7th, Reds -10th
OBP: Cubs - 11th, Reds -8th
SLG: Cubs -3rd, Reds - 9th
BA: Cubs - 6th, Reds -13th

K/BB: Cubs-2nd, Reds- 12th
ERA: Cubs -3rd, Reds-15th
HR Allowed: Cubs - 5th, Reds - 16th (Worst in league)

Probables:
Zambrano vs Claussen (5.91 ERA)
Maddux vs. Hancock (5.50 ERA)
Rusch vs. Hudson (2.55 ERA)
Prior vs. Harang(5.03 ERA)

Just keep winnin'.....just keep winnin'.....just keep winnin'

Here's the playoff race update:
Cubs 87-68 (7 games left & 1-2 since last post)
Home(43-32) 7 games left - Reds(4) Braves(3)
Away(44-36) 0 games left
**Note** - Please don't blow this, please don't blow this

Giants 87-69 (6 games left & 1-2 since last post).
Home(47-35) 0 games left -
Away(40-34) 6 games left - Padres(3), Dodgers(3)
**Note** Have to root for the Padres in this series and hope the NL West is close enough that the dodger series is relevant

Astros 86-70 (6 games left & 2-1 since last post).
Home(42-33) 6 games left - Cardinals(3), Rockies(3)
Away(44-37) 0 games left
**Note** "Oswalt is going to battle through injuries for his last 2 starts, Rolen is due back as well.

Padres 85-71 (6 games left & 3-0 since last post).
Home(41-37) 3 games left - Giants(3)
Away(44-33) 3 games left - D'Backs(3)
**Note** Still have to win outright in my opinion to have any chance

Dodgers 89-66 (7 games left & 2-1 since last post)
Home (45-29) 7 games left - Rockies(4), Giants(3)
Away (44-37) 0 games left
**Note** The Rockies can play the ultimate spoiler role this week, Dodgers very much want to go into Giants series clinched already or no worse than a tie.

Cubs control their own destiny(that shoud be good right?), and need at least 3 of 4 from Reds. I was hoping for a Thursday/Friday clinch, I fully expect this to go down to at least Saturday, probably Sunday. 91 wins gets you a tie, 92 should clinch it in my opinion. 6 of 7 will GUARANTEE us a tie, all 7 and we win it outright with no help.

I expect no favors from the Braves other than tinkering their rotation so they're set for the playoffs. I'm pretty sure all their regulars will play because if you're Bobby Cox and the Braves, if you have the CHANCE to knock the Cubs out now rather than later, I'd go for now.

Mets/Cubs

2004-09-24T13:01:00.000-07:00

Hopefully no letdown today against a team with a lame duck manager and a bunch of players not all that interested in baseball at the moment. Last city in our 12 game, 4 city road trip......ignore the night life fellas!!!

Some numbers:
OBP: Cubs - 11th, Mets -14th
SLG: Cubs -1st, Mets - 11th
BA: Cubs - 4th, Mets -15th
Runs Scored: Cubs - 7th, Mets - 12th

K/BB: Cubs-2nd, Mets- 15th
ERA: Cubs -3rd, Mets-8th
HR Allowed: Cubs - 5th, Mets -3rd

Probables:
Rusch vs. Benson(4.44 ERA 57BB/121K)
Prior vs Heilman (4.86 ERA in 3 games and 8BB/12K)
Wood vs. Leiter (3.19 ERA which is 2.45 at home, 90BB/106K - can we all say lucky?)

Once again a team/ballpark that doesn't give up a lot of homers, to our homer happy Cubs. We did survive Pitt though with only 1 homer from Ramirez the whole series.

Keep up the magic...cubbies. "Just keep winnin'.....just keep winnin'....just keep winnin'"

Just keep winnin'......

2004-09-24T11:25:00.000-07:00

Just keep winnin'.....just keep winnin'.....just keep winnin'.
For some reason that phrase keeps going through my head evertime I think about the Cubs (and for those 'Finding Nemo' fans, just repeat that phrase like "Dory" does in the film replacing her swimming with winning, it's rather catchy)

The Padres didn't do us a favor last night, but the Astros did. This leaves us 1 game behind the Dodgers and a 1/2 game up on the Giants, 2 1/2 on the Astros, with the Padres barely holding on at 4 1/2 games. The Cubs once again hold their faith in their own hands, which is where you want to be with 10 games left. (well actually I'd rather be where the Cardinals are at this point)

Here's the playoff race update:
Cubs 86-66 (10 games left & 3-0 since last post)
Home(43-32) 7 games left - Reds(4) Braves(3)
Away(43-34) 3 games left - Mets(3)
**Note** - Just keep winnin', just keep winnin', just keep winnin' - I told you it's catchy

Giants 86-67 (9 games left & 2-1 since last post).
Home(46-33) 3 games left - Dodgers(3)
Away(40-34) 6 games left - Padres(3), Dodgers(3)
**Note** A little bullpen implosion helped the cause last night. I hate the Dodgers more, but not seeing Mr. Bonds in the playoffs can't be that bad.

Astros 84-69 (9 games left & 1-2 since last post).
Home(42-33) 6 games left - Cardinals(3), Rockies(3)
Away(42-36) 6 games left - Brewers (3)
**Note** "Go Cards!", he says painfully

Padres 82-71 (12 games left & 2-1 since last post).
Home(38-37) 6 games left - Giants(3), D'Backs(3)
Away(44-33) 3 games left - D'Backs(3)
**Note** They need to win their last 9 games and still hope for a Cubs/Dodgers/Giants collapse or some combo thereof.

Dodgers 87-65 (10 games left & 1-2 since last post)
Home (45-29) 6 games left - Rockies(4), Giants(3)
Away (42-36) 3 games left -Giants (3)
**Note** HUGE win for them last night, may have saved their postseason chances.

If I was a betting man at this moment, I'd take the Dodgers and Cubs, although counting against Mr. Bonds is tough.

This is funny...

2004-09-23T17:38:00.000-07:00

I came across this while looking for some Baker quotes for a post I'm planning. It was back in April or something but ummm......how many ways can you say funny?
-----

"I'm so sick of people saying that 'scouting's the thing of the past,' or that 'you've got to analyze with numbers.' This is a franchise that's done everything the 'old school way' since the beginning, and we've won almost 400 games since coming into the league. But do the statheads ever acknowledge that? Or is that not enough of a 'sample size' or something?"
--Chuck LaMar, Devil Rays general manager

"Statistics can mean whatever you want them to mean. There's no accountability there--that's the problem."
--LaMar

"See, there you go again! Four-hundred's a lot, but you try to make it sound like that's not very good. How many games have you won, huh? How many? ...That's what I thought."
--LaMar, after being informed that his team has won only 39% of its games since 1998

Ahhhh....Chuck, the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles will always have a good thing to say about you.

That's GOOD baseball...

2004-09-23T13:31:00.000-07:00

So much to write about it.....

The Cubs take care of business and sweep the Pirates including last night's miraculous 1-0 Zambrano/Perez dual. Maybe one of the best games I've watched in a long time. 2 starters were dealing, great defense and the PLAY of the year by Sammy!!!! Maddux got his 15th win today and pitched mostly well (not to mention one of the great reactions when he gave up that 3rd run...pretty sure he didn't want that pitch there). That's 17 straight years with 15 or more wins.........impressive...MOST IMPRESSIVE!!!

A loss tonight by the Dodgers to the Padres (Ishii 4.75 ERA 85BB/83K's vs Wells(3.50 ERA 17BB/90K's) and the Cubs will be tied with Dodgers and either a half game up or down on the Giants). Can't imagine what Ishii's ERA would be if he didn't pitch half his games in Dodger Stadium. Poor Dodgers...

At the moment it's a 4 team race(barely) with 2 spots open. Dodgers, Giants, Cubs & Astros. Dodgers and Giants get to beat each other up for 6 games as well. The only way the Cubs don't make the playoffs at this point is if they BLOW it.

I have a few more thought provoking topics to write on including MLB's O-Zone, Ichiro, the fall of the Angels, the fall of my fantasy team and the awards race that I'll try and get to in the next couple of days.

Updated pitcher starts

2004-09-21T17:47:00.000-07:00

The word is Baker is skipping Clement at least for the next start and going with Rusch...Interesting!!! Clement has struggled since the break while Rusch has pitched well in moderate action. Here would be the updated pitcher starts if Baker goes that way the rest of the season.

@Pirates(3) - Wood, Zambrano, Maddux
@Mets(3) - Rusch, Prior, Wood
Cincy (4) - Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch, Prior
Braves(3) - Wood, Zambrano, Maddux

Unfortunately this leaves Rusch as the starter if we play a tie-breaker, I do not like this, Baker had the luxury with the doubleheaders to tweak his rotation accordingly and it seems short-sighted to not think that far in the future. But a combo Clement/Rusch for a tie-breaker game would not make me happy, especially if it's the Giants as Clement has struggled most of his career against them. Let's hope it's a mute point.

13 games left....

2004-09-21T10:53:00.000-07:00

According to espn.com, Rusch will be starting Friday against the Mets as Baker's plan to sweep the doubleheader versus the Marlins didn't exactly work out. I really don't know his plan now, is he going to skip Clement or go with a 6 man rotation? Of course with how many pitches Prior threw last night, an extra day off wouldn't be bad, not that we can afford it though. Personally let Clement pitch Friday on 3 days rest as he barely threw any pitches yesterday.

The matchups for this series:
Wood vs Fogg (4.82 ERA, 63BB/75K, 15 HR allowed)
Zambrano vs Perez (3.22 ERA, 72BB/217K, 22 HR allowed)
Maddux vs Van Benschoten(6.91 ERA, 19BB/18K, 3HR allowed in 28.2 IP)

Wednesday's ESPN2 game should be fun, and hopefully we don't make Fogg look so good again. Garciaparra is hopeful to return this series as well.

Runs Scored: Cubs -7th, Pirates -13th
OBP: Cubs - 11th, Pirates -12th
SLG: Cubs -1st, Pirates - 13th
BA: Cubs - 4th, Pirates -11th

K/BB: Cubs-3rd, Pirates- 10th
ERA: Cubs -3rd, Pirates-10th
HR Allowed: Cubs - 6th, Pirates - 1st

I'm a little worried about this series, the Pirates don't give up a lot of homers as a staff, we rely on homers as an offense and throw in that PNC is very friendly to lefties(which we have few of) but not righties (which we have a lot of). I'm nervous. Another sweep would be great but 2 out of 3 wil suffice. Astros and Giants are matched up for the next 3 games as well, so we should gain ground on one of them. I'm hoping Walker gets 2 of the 3 starts over Grudz in this series, but I don't expect it.

I do have to give credit to our bullpen lately, they have seriously stepped it up. Some numbers of our bullpen:

9/20 vs. Marlins 5.2 IP, 0 Runs, 3BB/6K
9/20 vs. Marlins 1.1 IP, 0 Runs, 0BB/0K
9/19 vs. Reds 2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 BB/1K
9/18 vs. Reds 2 IP, 0 Runs, 3BB/4K
9/17 vs. Reds 2 IP, 3 Runs, 1BB/3K
9/16 vs. Reds 2IP, 0 Runs, 0BB/2K
9/15 vs. Pirates 4 IP, 0 Runs, 1BB, 6K
9/14 vs. Pirates 6 IP, 0 Runs, 1BB/6K
9/13 vs. Pirates 2 IP, 2 Runs, 0BB/2K

That's a 1.67 ERA over the last week not to mention that the 3 runs versus the Reds that Wellemeyer gave up on Friday and the 2 runs that Dempster gave up on 9/13 were when both games were already decided. I've been critical of the bullpen most of the season but I have to applaud them lately.

The last bad outing was against the Marlins on 9/12 when Mitre and Leicester gave up 6 runs in 4.1IP after a rough 3.1 IP by Rusch. Of course Farnsworth is back and Baker will use him, Oh Boy!!!!!

Playoff race update

2004-09-20T16:14:00.000-07:00

A little busy at work so just enough time to update the playoff race - I'm eliminating the Phillies (and probably the Marlins & Padres by next week) and adding the Dodgers:

Cubs 83-66 (13 games left & 6-2 since last post)
Home(43-32) 7 games left - Reds(4) Braves(3)
Away(40-34) 6 games left - Pirates(3), Mets(3)
**Note** Lost control of their own destiny today in terms of winning outright, still can match wins with the Giants for a tie.

Giants 84-66 (12 games left & 5-1 since last post).
Home(44-32) 6 games left - Astros (3), Dodgers(3)
Away(40-34) 6 games left - Padres(3), Dodgers(3)
**Note** They miss Clemens unfortunately but get Oswalt, as long as they don't sweep the Astros I won't get worried.

Astros 83-67 (12 games left & 5-1 since last post).
Home(42-33) 6 games left - Cardinals(3), Rockies(3)
Away(41-34) 6 games left - Brewers (3), Giants(3)
**Note** Still have to root for the Cards....This is PAINFUL!!!

Marlins 79-70 (13 games left & 4-5 since last post).
Home(42-35) 3 games left - Phillies(3)
Away(37-35) 10 games left - Braves(3), Phillies(4), Expos (3)
**Note** These fish are FRIED(the cheesy headlines are back)...Last 10 games are still on the Road

Padres 80-70 (12 games left & 3-3 since last post).
Home(36-36) 9 games left - Dodgers (3), Giants(3), D'Backs(3)
Away(44-33) 3 games left - D'Backs(3)
**Note** I'm no longer worried about them, losing half your infield will do that.

Dodgers 86-63 (13 games left)
Home (45-29) 6 games left - Rockies(4), Giants(3)
Away (41-34) 6 games left - Padres (3), Giants (3)
**Note** The injuries to the Padres might save this team, plus 4 games with the Rockies. If they win in the playoffs I'll be ABSOLUTELY amazed. Still wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs end up battling them for the WC spot.

Dodgers are 9-9 in September, Cubs 11-6, Giants 11-5, Astros 14-4.
Some seperation occurred last week as the Astros, Giants & Cubs look to be the last meaningful contenders(throw in the Dodgers if you like). 2 weeks of high intensity baseball.....this should be fun. Having a healthy Garciaparra would be extra nice. As usual GO CUBS!!!

Tonight's matchups....

2004-09-17T13:21:00.000-07:00

Well tonight's a good day to gain some ground:

Atl vs. Flo
Byrd (3.34 ERA) vs. Kensing (15.00 ERA)

Mil vs. Hou
Sheets (2.83 ERA) vs. Oswalt (3.55 ERA)

SDP vs SF
Peavy (2.26 ERA) vs. Lowry (4.35 ERA)

Cubs vs Cincy
Zambrano (2.80 ERA) vs. Hudson (2.43 ERA - only 4 starts this year)

Mon vs. Phi
Armas (4.88 ERA) vs. Milton (4.87 ERA)

I'll even throw in the Dodgers as I'm sticking to my "I won't be surprised if we end up fighting the Dodgers as well for the WC spot" assertion:

LA vs Col
Nomo(7.73 ERA) vs. Wright (4.13 ERA)

Don't know what to say about last night's game, another one run victory though, it's becoming an epidemic. If we even out our record in those, we'll cruise to the Wild Card. A-Ram baby, thing of beauty.

Keep it going....

More useless playoff probabilities

2004-09-16T16:01:00.000-07:00

If the Giants play at their winning percentage they'll be around 90-72 or 91-71 to end the season (8-7 or 9-6 in their last 15 games). For the Cubs that means going 12-7(.632 winning percentage) the rest of the way would give us 91 wins. With the competiton we're facing that should be possible, 1 win vs the Marlins(out of 2), 6 vs the Reds(out of 8), 2 vs Mets(out of 3), 2 from the Pirates(out of 3), 1 from the Braves(out of 3). All of that seems very reasonable to me(although I certainly hope we do better) and with the Giants competition, 91 might be a stretch for them, although they do have Mr. Bonds. With K. Greene out, the Padres road got a bit tougher, the Phils would have to win out from now just to reach 91, the Marlins just loss A.J. Burnett for at least a start, which leaves the Astros. They worry me as well, veteran team, last chance for a lot of them, and Clemens/Oswalt is tough. They do have a suspect bullpen and 3/5th's of a poor starting rotation which means they could lose 2 out of 3 to the Brewers much like that 3 out of 5 to the Pirates. They also would have to go 12-4 to get to 91 wins against tougher competition than the Cubs face. I'm still feeling quite hopeful.

To summarize and since for some reason I believe 91 wins is the magic number, here is what the teams will have to do the rest of the way to get to 91: (These are unweighted winning percentages meaning 8 games versus the Reds is the same as 2 versus the Marlins)

Giants: 9-6.....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .551
Cubs: 12-7.....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .493
Astros: 12-4....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .549
Marlins: 15-4....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .518
Padres: 13-3....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .482
Phillies: 16-0...Remaining opponents winning percentage: .467

In less than perfect math if we weigh them(oppenents winning percentage x games played versus that team....add it all up and divide it by TOTAL GAMES LEFT)
Giants - .553
Cubs - .483
Astros - .513
Marlins - .521
Padres - .470
Phillies - .474

For the Astros, in my opinion, they'd have to split the last 4 with the Cards, 2 out of 3 from Giants, and win out versus Rockies and Brewers for the magical 12-4. The Padres get to face the D'Backs for 6 which lowers their opponent winning percentage, but that also means they could face R. Johnson twice. The Cubs don't have the easiest road in terms of opponents winning percentages but they also have the least farthest to go(besides the Giants), not to mention everyone else has to beat up on each other. If the Giants win this thing or take over the Dodgers....to say the least they deserve it. If we don't make it, to say the least, we blew it cause it's ours for the taking.

And I'm going out on a limb here, but it would not suprise me the least if we end up fighting the Dodgers for this Wild Card spot as well, they're limping to the finish with a horrible rotation, one reliever left and an average offense. Penny is due back Wednesday which certainly will help but how much will he pitch and how effective. The only good news for them is they have 7 games left versus the Rockies, which may just be enough to get them in.

Great American Ballpark.....

2004-09-16T13:23:00.000-07:00

Great name for a stadium......right up there with the former, "The Ballpark" in Arlington....which is now a mortgage company.

Anyway 50% chance of rain in Cincy the next 2 days....more doubleheaders would be very bad. The Giants seem to have taken care of their business with the Brewers as their currently up 4-0 in the bottom of the eight. Their next 15 games are all against good teams though that they've gone 11-18 so far this season against, if that means anything. And they'll probably miss Clemens when they face the Astros but will get the Oswalt, all this after missing Sheets in Milwaukee.

Some numbers:

Runs Scored: Cubs -8th, Reds -10th
OBP: Cubs - 11th, Reds -10th
SLG: Cubs -1st, Reds - 9th
BA: Cubs - 5th, Reds -14th

K/BB: Cubs-3rd, Reds- 12th
ERA: Cubs -3rd, Reds-15th
HR Allowed: Cubs - 6th best, Reds - 16th (Worst in league)

Probables:
Wood vs. Hancock (5.82 ERA)
Zambrano vs Hudson (2.43 ERA but in 6 games and a 14BB/22K ratio)
Maddux vs. Harang (4.89 ERA)
Clement vs. Hilson...I mean Wilson(4.85 ERA)

Just keep taking care of business

I change my mind...

2004-09-15T14:33:00.000-07:00

After the last 2 games, Iet Clement pitch the tie-breaker if it comes to that, otherwise sit Prior and use him in long relief. His lack of control this year is alarming and if he doesn't have his control the Cards will destroy him as will the Braves and Dodgers most likely. He's definitely been our 5th best starter this year and there's no reason to think otherwise.

Good win today (2 outs in the top of the 9th as I write this with a 13-5 lead). Prior was once again disappointing.

Injuries

2004-09-15T11:18:00.000-07:00

A quote from Baker also stolen from the Cub Reporter reader 'MannyTrillo':

"This has been the worst year of injuries I've had as a manager," Baker said Tuesday. "As soon as you get whole, another part goes down.

"I don't appreciate people getting on this team so much about different things, small things, because of the amount of injuries we've had and we've had to overcome a lot," Baker said. "People say, 'How come you're not in first place like the Cardinals?' They haven't had the injuries we had this year and we didn't have the injuries they had last year.

"When the year starts, they ask, 'What do you want out of the year?' and you say good health and everybody laughs at you. Good health is something we take for granted but it's real. I've always said if I can keep my first team on the field more than yours, we're going to beat you. Where we are right now, even though we're not where we want to be, we've done it short most of the year."
------

Look I hate excuses more than the next guy, but I really think the Cubs are in this predicament mostly cause of injuries. And yes they got most of their guys back by what July, but it's not that easy, it takes awhile to get going sometimes and the nagging injuries on top of that haven't helped the cause and they've barely been whole for any reasonable length of time.
Here's a list:

Cubs 2004 Injuries (60 denotes 60 day DL, * is what I consider a key injury, all info from cubs.com)
Remlinger x2
*Grudzielanek (60)
*Prior (60)
Macias
Goodwin
Wellemeyer
*Wood
*Sosa
*Gonzalez(60)
*Borowski(60)
Mercker
*Hollandsworth(60)

Cubs 2003 Injuries (60 denotes 60 day DL, * is what I consider a key injury, all info from cubs.com)
Chiasson(60)
Alfonseca
Ohman
Veres x2
*Sosa
Guthrie
*Choi
Goodwin
*Prior
*Patterson(60)
*Grudzielanek

That's 7 key injuries to 4, not to mention a lot more time lost. Some will argue with the Gonzalez and Borowski as key injuries. Here's my take, Gonzalez did suck, but you couldn't trade him until he got healthy and the replacement that were in there were even worse than him, Borowski has been good the last 2 years and I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm betting the reason he sucked this year is cause of what ailed him and he refused to let anyone know or just tried to suck it up. For reference Cardinal injuries:

2004 Injuries
Rick Ankiel
R. Cedeno
M. Lincoln
*Matheny
Lankford
*S. Kline
K. Calero

2003 Injuries
L. Painter
*J.D. Drew x2
Girardi(60)
*Isringhausen(60)
Stechschulte
*Vina
*E. Marrero
R. Springer
K. Calero
C. Widger
*M. Morris

Not a meaningful injury to the Cards all year to be honest, Matheny is good defensively but that's about it and S. Kline is a reliever.

I'm going to go listen to the game....hopefully the brooms will be out.

C-Pat!!!!!!

2004-09-15T10:50:00.000-07:00

C-Pat saves the day yesterday as we make a guy with a 5+ ERA who likes to give up the homer on a day with the wind blowing out look like an All-Star. C-Pat's first homer though was possibly the most wind-blown homer I've ever seen in my life, when he swung he knew it was a fly ball out, but the LF just kept backing up and it nestled beautifully into the basket.
What a game!!!! Also with Oliver Perez pitching today, a very big win for the Cubbies.

Some updates and other notes:

Baker switched Prior and Wood, so here's an update on the upcoming pitching starts...all speculative of course:

Pirates(1) - Prior
@Cincy (4) -Wood, Zambrano, Maddux. Clement
@Florida(2 - Doubleheader) - Prior, Rusch(I assume)
@Pirates(3) - Wood, Zambrano, Maddux
@Mets(3) - Clement, Prior, Wood
Cincy (4) - Zambrano, Maddux, Clement, Prior
Braves(3) - Wood, Zambrano, Maddux

This now sets up Prior as a tie-breaker or GAME 1 starter if it gets there. I don't like that as much. Prior of last year yes, inconsistent Prior of this year obviously struggling for his control, no!!!

Stealing some stuff from The Cub Reporter that I commented on yesterday, here's Maddux's stats since the All-Star Break:
___________ RECORD IP BB K ERA
July _________4-1 35.3 2 23 2.29
August ______3-1 39.3 9 27 2.97
September___1-1 14.7 2 9 1.23
---------------------------------------------
TOTAL 8-3 89.3 13 59 2.42

(That info was from the Cub Reporter)......

Although very impressive, here are his opponents since the All-Star Game:
Cincy (10th in RS)
Brewers x4 (14th in RS)
Phillies (4th in RS)
Giants (1st in RS)
Dodgers (9th in RS)
Expos x2 (15th in RS)
Pirates (13th in RS)

Not the best of the best here....he pitched well against the Phillies, got the win against the Giants but it wasn't a real good outing, he did well against the Dodgers(who I thought would be ranked higher) but got the loss. Everyone else kind of sucks.

I love the guy but he seems to have missed some of the good teams we've played so far, like the Padres(very good on the road to a tune of 5.7 Runs per game), Astros twice and @ Colorado.
______

This all stemmed from a discussion of what our playoff rotation should be, say we get there, I said if we have the luxury it should be Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, Prior with Clement in long relief. The stats for the top 3 against expected playoff opponents:

Wood
Atl - 1-0, 1.29 ERA, 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 3 BB, 11K, .200 AVG
LA - 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 10 IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 4BB, 9K, .189 AVG
STL - 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 13 IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 15K, .174AVG

Maddux
Not faced Atlanta
LA - 0-1, 2.84 ERA, 6.1IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB,5K, .320AVG
STL 1-1, 4.58ERA, 19.2IP, 24H,10R,10ER,0BB,12K, .308AVG

Zambrano
Atl - 0-0, 1.29ERA, 7IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 7K, .095AVG
LA, 1-0, 0.00ERA, 8IP, 2H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, 11K, .077AVG
STL 1-1, 2.78ERA, 22.2IP, 7R, 7ER, 10BB,27K, .171AVG

This all screams small sample size of course. It's very hard to pick between Z and Wood, but Z's overly emotional ways tend to frighten me a little bit come playoff time. It's a tough call. Wood is better than his ERA demonstrates this year as he's really been screwed by his defense this year more than any other Cub pither (and I'm not talking unearned runs here).

Never easy

2004-09-14T13:16:00.000-07:00

I think it's safe to say that IF the Cubs make the postseason, it WILL NOT be easy. It's going to involve tie-breakers possibily and it's definitely going down to the last series versus the Braves. I figured out the rotation from here to the season end:

Pirates(2) - Clement, Wood
@Cincy (4) -Prior, Zambrano, Maddux. Clement
@Florida(2 - Doubleheader) - Wood, Rusch(I assume)
@Pirates(3) - Prior, Zambrano, Maddux
@Mets(3) - Clement, Wood, Prior
Cincy (4) - Zambrano, Maddux, Clement, Wood
Braves(3) - Prior, Zambrano, Maddux

This means the Maddux very well may have to beat his old team on the last day of the season and then we get to meet them 2 days later. It also conveniently works out that Wood is set-up to pitch a tie-breaker game or Game 1 of the NLDS which I like a lot.

Last night the Cubs did something they HAD to do and that's win on a day when the team ahead of them has an off-day. The Cubs in theory control their own destiny due to the fact they have to play 3 more games than the Giants. With 21 games left, I don't know how much that matters, but I DO KNOW winning on the days the Giants don't play is VITAL.

After this series against the Brewers, the Giants are left with the Padres, Dodgers & Astros. Hopefully all of them will beat up on each other as I've mentioned and no one gets hot. Here's a WC breakdown of contenders updated from last week:

Cubs 77-64 (21 games left & 3-3 since last post)
Home(41-32) 9 games left - Pirates (2), Reds(4) Braves(3)
Away(36-32) 12 games left - Reds(4), Marlins(2), Pirates(3), Mets(3)

Giants 79-65 (18 games left & 3-1 since last post).
Home(42-31) 9 games left - Astros (3), Padres(3), Dodgers(3)
Away(37-34) 9 games left - Brewers(3), Padres(3), Dodgers(3)
**Note** They miss B. Sheets unfortunately

Astros 78-66 (18 games left & 3-3 since last post).
Home(39-33) 9 games left - Brewers (3), Cardinals(3), Rockies(3)
Away(39-33) 9 games left - Brewers (3), Cardinals(3), Giants(3)
**Note** Go CARDS, go S. Estes - I've just sold my soul...

Marlins 75-65 (22 games left & 4-3 since last post).
Home(38-30) 12 games left - Expos (4), Braves(3), Phillies(3), Cubs (2)
Away(37-35) 10 games left - Braves(3), Phillies(4), Expos (3)
**Note** Last 10 games are on the Road

Phillies 74-70 (18 games left & didn't include them last week..WHOOPS!!).
Home(36-35) 10 games left - Expos (3), Pirates(3), Marlins(4)
Away(38-35) 8 games left - Reds(2), Marlins(3), Expos (3)
**Note** Bowa's desperate plea to save his job

Padres 77-67 (18 games left & 4-2 since last post).
Home(36-36) 9 games left - Dodgers (3), Giants(3), D'Backs(3)
Away(41-31) 9 games left - Dodgers(3), Giants(3), D'Backs(3)
**Note** There's no good reason for it, but this team worries me the most other than the Giants

hopeful that Clement is healthy today and R. Macowiak doesn't have any more kids....

Derek.....

2004-09-11T22:54:00.000-07:00

Got a chance and just sit down and watch the game which was to say the least nerve-wracking. Wasted opportunities early and then getting to a tough pen in the Marlins.

Observations....

- Big win with Rusch vs. Burnett tomorrow, a win tomorrow would be huge but at least a loss wouldn't be catastrophic anymore.

- D. Lee swinging at that 3-1 pitch had the dogs(and wife) scurrying from the room. You know better Derek.

-Made up for it big time with that double, looked like Cabrera gave up on it though. He wasn't going to catch but I thought he could have saved it going to the wall. No matter though.

- I was near crazy when Neifi went up to pinch-hit in the 8th, but then remembered that Walker has been a very BAD pinch hitter for whatever reason and Perez did have a huge day yesterday, so not such a bad move and I calmed down when they called him safe at 2nd.

- Barrett bunting with 2 strikes was a little maddening, although trying to win it right there was the move to make. Try and get your run in the 8th and not go into extra innings.

- Baker must have got the memo that these games matter as he played it as a must win, dropping Sosa to 6th and all of his in-game moves.

-Hawkins ate his Wheaties...I believe that was a nine pitch, 3 K strikeout 9th inning...RARE and IMPRESSIVE!!

Knockout opportunity tomorrow.....

I'm ill......

2004-09-10T14:06:00.000-07:00

Well Cubbies, you've put yourself in that corner you never should have gotten into. A MUST WIN game. That is what the 2nd game of this doubleheader is now. Mathematically sure it isn't, but I GUARANTEE you if they lose this game they will NOT make the playoffs, a matter of fact they may not win another game this series.

You should get on the Internet Baker..

2004-09-10T13:04:00.000-07:00

Apparently Baker didn't read my blog, as McKeon once again shows him who's the better manager. The Marlins start all their regulars in the 1st game of the series realizing the importance of this game and this series and Baker starts R. Martinez and T. Goodwin. You are AN ABSOLUTE IDIOT Baker. You just had an off day yesterday.....these are major league players, I think they can handle 2 games in a day...if you have to give them a day off, do it 7 days from now, NOT Today.

Blame Wood if you want, he's given up 1 run today in my opinion. Defense hurts him again. I'd like to say as long as we win the next 3, but we're not going to. More scrubs will play in the 2nd game and this team hasn't shown up for a BIG game all year.

My patience is just about run out....

Make It So.....

2004-09-10T11:53:00.000-07:00

These are the words Dusty should use to his team... "Just Make It So". No excuses for the next 4 games, you just need to win them (at least 3 out of 4).

Here's some numbers:

Cubs 7th in Runs Scored, Marlins 11th
Cubs 11th in OBP, Marlins 10th
Cubs 2nd in SLG, Marlins 11th

Cubs 4th in Team ERA, Marlins 5th
Cubs 3rd K/BB ratio, Marlins 6th

Very similar teams, with the Cubs power hitters giving them the nod. The wind is supposed to blow out the first 3 games, so that's good news for the Cubs hitters. McKeon last year did laps around Baker in the playoffs, lets all pray it doesn't happen again. If the Cubs lose the 2nd game of today's doubleheader to a kid just called up from single 'A', there is no way I can possibly have anymore faith for this team.

A lot of people want to blame Baker for this team's supposed underachievement. You're all welcome to, but he's certainly not the sole responsible party. Here is the way I see it in no particular order:

1) INJURIES - I'll have to do it more scientific but I'm pretty positive there isn't a team still in the playoff hunt who has lost as many key players than the Cubs have this year for an extended period of time. Throw in all the nagging injuries to Garciaparra, Sosa, Ramirez, etc and it's not easy playing baseball.

2)BULLPEN - Blame Baker but I don't think his usage patterns were all that different than any other manager, with what he got. I blame Hendry on this one. He's been a great GM so far except in this area, he gave out a very bad contract to Remlinger last year (3 yrs for a guy in his mid 30's) and keeps saying he plans to upgrade the bullpen and it hasn't really worked. Hawkins was a good deal, Mercker has been respectful, and well I don't know who to blame Farnsworth on. I still believe he should have made a deadline deal for a reliable reliever. They're always available and signing K.Foulke over Hawkins would have been even better. (or both and not sign Remlinger, Mercker and a few other stiffs the last couple of years)

3)Sosa - He's a shell of the player he's been...hate to say it. Everybody in the league has his scouting report memorized, low and outside breaking balls and high fastballs. Don't waste your time with anything else. He's defense is bad and I'm being kind and more than anything he hasn't adjusted all season. He's nothing to fear anymore.

4)Baker - The only thing I really blame him for is the Cubs atrocious OBP. From day 1 of spring training he has deemphasized walks and patience and it has hurt the team. Think he would have learned from Mr. Bonds in San Fran. A lot of fans get angry at Alou and Garciaparra for their first pitch hacking ways, but I assume none of those fans played a game of baseball in there life. Both those guys are REALLY good fastball hitters, in general you're going to get a fastball early in the count cause the pitcher wants to get ahead, are they supposed to wait until the count is 1-2 and they're being thrown a bunch of offspeed stuff? I don't think so. Both of those guys have been very good hitters for awhile now and yes they won't walk a lot cause they swing early but they have value in putting the ball in play and hitting over .300 most of their career with good power. As for Sosa, Lee, and the rest of the team minus T. Walker and Hollandsworth well I don't know what their excuse is so I blame Baker on this one.

Minor problems - Prior, nagging injuries, bad baserunning team, Wendell Kim, wacky lineup construction.

I'll be tuned to MLB radio and WGN all weekend. Playoff time Cubbies!!!

The Rookie Pitcher

2004-09-09T17:09:00.000-07:00

Here's a link to a story about the 'fella' pitching the 2nd game of tomorrow's doubleheader.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1878015

Probably end up throwing a complete game one hitter against us....(I'm sounding more like a Cubs fan everyday)

It never happened....

2004-09-09T16:10:00.000-07:00

I'm going to pretend that last night's game didn't happen, it will help me cope with the rest of the season. Do it with me!!!

The Astros are losing the 1st game of a DH at the moment, although that could change soon. I've done everything I can to keep the season in perspective, one loss is one loss, it doesn't define a season, there's still time to put together that unfathomable hot streak, In Dusty we Trusty, control our own destiny, etc, etc. Well this weekend is it....3 out of 4, no less, I demand it. The Cubs need to play this series like it's the playoffs, no ifs, ands, or buts, this is your season whether you realize it or not. No one takes a day off, no wacky lineups, put out your best and play your best...NO F****** EXCUSES anymore. Your season is NOW!!!!

Cubs.com has Wood and Prior going tomorrow. Wood has absolutely dominated the Marlins in his career(4-0 1.85 ERA) and he needs to do it again. The 'Good' Prior needs to come out and we need the sweep to start the series. Zambrano goes Saturday and Clement will probably miss Sunday's start which means we need another miracle performance from Rusch. It appears we'll miss Beckett, but a Pavano/Wood matchup to start the series should be fun, they throw a rookie named Kensing for the 2nd game and then D. Willis whose wacky motion is no longer covering up his mediocre stuff and then the recently injured A.J. Burnett on Sunday.

As I mentioned yesterday, barring a rainout the Cubs don't have an off day the rest of the season, so to all those Cubbies with nagging injuries, find the Advil, makes friends with the cortisone shot if you have to, smoke some pot if need be(for some reason Farnsworth strikes me as someone who could help you find some) and play, not only play, but play well. No more AB's for the scrubs to keep them fresh, no wacky lineups, no bullpen experiments, this is the your time Cubbies to not let down a nation of fans once again, it is in YOUR hands.

What is there to say?

2004-09-08T09:59:00.000-07:00

One run loss.....sound too familiar. Hard to pinpoint the exact reason for this one, lots of guys left on base, overuse of the bullpen cause of Clement's injury, it all adds up to a very, very painful loss. The race got a little tighter last night as the Astros and Marlins won and we have a legitimate 5-6 team race (count the Dodgers in if you'd like). Here's my breakdown...

Cubs 74-61 (27 games left). They should win this, but of course they should be 10 games up right now. Nagging injuries to Sosa, Ramirez, Garciaparra, & Clement could make all the difference. Personally this is the time to just suck it up.
Key games - 6 left versus Florida, 3 versus Braves (last weekend of the season), 2 doubleheaders though versus Marlins means starts for Rusch, everyone else is a cupcake (not that it helps the Cubs lately)

Giants 76-64 (22 games left). Still think they have a chance to catch Dodgers and well they have Mr. Bonds, unfortunately he doesn't come out of the bullpen to pitch for them.
Key games - 6 left versus Dodgers, 6 versus Padres, 3 versus Astros ...that's pretty brutal

Astos 75-63 (24 games left). Great offense, but down to 2 good starting pitchers and a suspect bullpen. Biggio/Bagwell/Clemens I'm sure want it more than anyone else though.
Key games - 6 left versus St. Louis, 3 versus Giants...Go CARDS!!! (Can't believe I just said that)

Marlins 71-62 (29 games left). Pretty good staff and offense has been better lately, biggest threat to Cubs in my opinion.
Key games - 6 left versus Cubs, 6 versus Braves, 7 versus Phillies.....hope Bowa and the Phils can beat them this year

Padres 73-65 (24 games left). Honestly don't know how team has survived to this point, but they have. And whether you believe in it or not, D. Wells sure has been a winner his whole career.
Key games - 7 left versus Dodgers, 6 versus Giants, 1 today against Cards.....need to beat up on Rockies & D'Backs in between

**Dodgers 79-58 (25 games left) 4.5 game lead in the West but their starting staff isn't very good, their bullpen isn't very good anymore past Gagne. They do have one of the best managers in the game in my opinion and the offense has been quite good this year. Brutal schedule though so they may fall back.
Key games - 7 left versus Padres , 6 versus Giants, 3 versus Cardinals.....

By all statistical measures and reasonable viewpoints, the Cubs should win this thing and Baker has usually had his teams playing well in September. Let's hope this is one of those years (and that McKeon doesn't manhandle him in the managing duties like last year's playoffs)

Maddux goes tonight within 2 wins of his 17th straight 15 win season. Every Cub pitcher from here on out, has to pitch absolutely brilliantly in my opinion as our offense is very hit and miss (particularly with the nagging injuries). Tomorrow is the last day off of the season barring a rainout, so get ready for some baseball!!!

A One-Run Win????

2004-09-02T11:50:00.000-07:00

If we lost last night I may have not been able to come to work, but amazingly we pulled out a close game for once. Of course LaTroy had to make it a little closer. Kerry does his Jekyll/Hyde impression from very bad Friday to DAMN good yesterday and of course gets no run support.

That and Florida is under siege so we may not even have baseball this weekend.

I did forget to comment that the Cubs picked up Grieve and DeFelice in deadline deals. Grieve isn't very good but we needed a left-handed bat off the bench and you just have to assume Hollandsworth is done for the season sadly. Hope they can bring him back next year. DeFelice just gives us the option to pinch hit for Bako in the games he starts and will rarely see an at-bat. Both subtle but smart moves by Hendry.

And in other, much more amusing news, the Cards are THINKING of putting Ankiel on their postseason roster if Kline isn't healthy enough to return. OH PLEASE, Mr. LaRussa find a way to screw up your team. If I'm the other 25 guys on the Cards roster, I have to be thinking are you really willing to put any of our postseason games in the hands of one of the biggest nutcases to ever play this game. I can only hope......

Well that's it, I'm behind on my project at work and with the possibility of no baseball this weekend, blogging might be light until Monday. Best wishes to those in Florida as that hurricane looks huge...

Site update....

2004-08-31T12:38:00.000-07:00

In exciting news (for me), if you type in Transplanted Cubs Fan into Google, I show up 1st (per link from baseball blogs.org) and 4th is a direct link to the site.

Type in Cubs fan site and I'm like 56th or something. Work to do....

Also I added some links to cubs baseball blogs which are to the right and closer to the bottom icons for baseball blogs.org and sports blogs.org which were kind enough to add me to their list of sites.

Also I added the little envelope icon at the bottom of each post so you can easily email a post to someone if you deem it worthy. (why you would do that I don't know)

Interesting strategy....

2004-08-31T11:12:00.000-07:00

I can only assume the Cubs strategy is to let the teams still within reach win games so we can crush their hearts out later in a close race. Right??? No other excuse for letting the Astros, Padres, Giants, Dodgers (and I only can assume Marlins) win series' from us. Sat. night was another brutal one run loss, this time a comical play involving Zambrano and Barrett. I don't know about you guys, Barrett's bat has been fantastic this year, but as a defensive catcher.....I can only say 'Oui'. I know he came up as a 3rd baseman but he just never looks comfortable going after pop-ups, blocking pitches and I can't tell you how many times I've seen the ball pop out of his glove. It's like he's still not used to the mitt.

And if we can talk Patterson into moving to left, I'll be happy to sign Beltran. Otherwise I certainly hope he liked the American League more and I certainly EXPECT him to sign with the Yankees (they in need of a CF and they with money to burn)

Last night Maddux was his vintage self. I know everybody realizes his defensive greatness, but have you ever actually watched him after every pitch. It's just amazing... Once he releases the ball he's already shading his body towards either 1st or 3rd depending on the location and is in perfect fielding position after almost every pitch. Genius!!! This is in stark contrast to K. Wood who after every pitch is usually falling so far off to the 1st base side that he completely opens up the middle. I swear ballplayers don't watch games when their in the dugout...

Week in review....

- The Angels win 9 in a row, 10 of their last 12 and I believe lose a game in the standing to the A's and Red Sox. That's tough.. They did play tougher competition though and the Red Sox still have 6 games left versus the Yanks, not to mention a brutal 9 game stretch starting tonight versus the Angels, A's and Rangers.

- Speaking of Angels, went to the game Sunday afternoon and low and behold, T. Glaus is back. I'm sure statistically the Red Sox, Yanks and Cards all have better middle of the order lineups, but you can't tell me there's anybody who wants to look at V. Guerrero, G. Anderson, T. Glaus and then J. Guillen all in a row. Who do you pitch to? Saber folks I know aren't big fans of Anderson in particular (and well this year his power has just disappeared and the long-term deal he signed wasn't such a smart move by the Angels), but well he still hits the crap out of the ball and if they get anything resembling good starting pitching, I still like them to get one of those playoff spots.

- B. Bonds hits 2 moonshots on Sunday and will now be walked for a week straight...... Wimpy managers.

- K Farnsworth injured himself after kicking a wall or fan after a brutal outing on Friday. The words "poetic justice" come to mind, either that or "about time". Kyle, if you need to take, let's say 3 month to recover, feel free no one wants you back.

- K. Williams (GM of the White Sox) in so many words said he's not going to re-sign M. Ordonez. I have this on-going bet with a buddy every year at a $1 a game between the Cubs and Sox. (Whoever is up in the standings at the end of the year by how many games wins the money). With K. Williams as the Sox GM, I'll be winning for years. I don't know anything about Ordonez's injury but when he's healthy he's damn good. Way to give up on one of your best players.

Short list (5 best Gm's in the game)
1. John Schuerholz (Braves)
2. Billy Beane (athletics)
3. Terry Ryan (Twins)
4. Brian Sabean (Giants)
5. Jim Hendry (Cubs)

Honorable mention: Walt Jocketty (Cards), Brian Cashman (Yankees), Mark Shapiro (Indians), John Hart (Rangers)

I'm neglecting guys who haven't been on the job for at least 2 years as it's too hard to judge at this point.

Worst 5 Gm's
1. Kenny Williams (White Sox)
2. Jim Duquette (Mets)
3. Chuck LaMarr (Devil Rays)
4. Allen Baird (Royals)
5. Dan O' Dowd (Rockies)

Keep beating up the pastsies Cubs!!!!

If they let me in charge....

2004-08-26T19:03:00.000-07:00

So another Cubs blowout and I'm feeling better everyday, not to mention Sosa knocked one out to right which is always a good sign. Not much to report, Prior wasn't exceptionally sharp but got through 6 innings and apparently him and the Cubs heard my plea for a damn win for my fantasy team.

I was looking at the schedules and I really have no expectations or hope that the Cubs will beat out the Cards this year. I do hold out hope that we'll make up some ground and go cruising into the playoffs and cut the lead to 4 or 5 games. The Cards although not a difficult schedule do have to face the Padres for 6 and Dodgers for 6 more games, plus a bunch of games versus the Astros. I would love for them to struggle and play no better than .500 ball the rest of the way, (which still means close to a 100 wins..sickening). Hopefully the combo of Padres, Giants, Dodgers & Cards who will all meet each other (Cards & Giants are done with each other actually), will have the affect of beating up on each other, while the Cubs cruise through the patsies they have left (Pirates, Reds, Expos, Mets, Marlins, and the final series versus the Braves). This is what I wish for.....

win the Wild card around Sept. 27th at home versus the Reds, so we can get our pitching order in line (Wood, Zambrano, Clement, Prior or Maddux in that order)

still be withn 3-5 games of the Cards so they really can't rest their starters quite yet and start getting nervous about how they blew 8 games in the standings

- pray that B. Bonds and the Giants don't take over the division lead cause I don't want to see him in the playoffs

- somehow the Padres do win the division and I get tickets to go see the games at Petco (I'll take the Dodgers as well)

Okay make it happen Dusty and the Cubs.

This was supposed to be big.....

2004-08-26T11:17:00.000-07:00

Astros versus Cubs, Miller, Petitte, Clemens, Oswalt, some #5 pitcher versus Prior, Maddux, Clement, Wood, Zambrano. These were the 2 teams supposedly fighting for the division this year, little did we know Tony Womack was going to have a good year for the Cards.

Pitching matchups:

Backe vs Prior (Prior's been shelled at home this year)
Oswalt vs. Wood (Will the beanballs continue? have to think Wood will refrain as another suspension at this point wouldn't be smart)
Clemens vs. Zambrano (hope I can watch that one)
Hernandez vs. Clement (Clement finally catches some breaks)

Well we get 2 really good pitching matchups in this one and I'll take 3 out of 4 and be happy. Our wild card competitors get Atlanta and Montreal respectively. J. Schmidt is back though and will pitch Saturday against the Braves and the Expos have actually been playing pretty well since the All-Star break, so hopefully they'll give the Padres some troubles.

More importantly though, fantasty baseball news....

- My absolute WORST fantasy baseball moment is when you see a team score a whole bunch of runs and you have a guy on that team. Then you check the box score and your guy either DIDN't play or in my case barely contributed. Last night the Angels scored 21 runs and I have Eckstein & Figgins on my team. Neither did horribly but, Eckstein didn't get a hit (did score a few runs) and Figgins was 2 for 4 with a double and few runs scored. But with 21 runs I WANTED MORE.......

- I have the best pitching in my league (3.37 TEAM ERA...2nd place is 3.53...3rd place is 3.84), yet I'm only 3rd in total points. Why? Cause of the damn wins. (For those of you who play in 4x4, 5x5, 6x6 or any of those traditional roto leagues, just ignore this as I play at stats.com and the scoring is COMPLETELY different.....MUCH, MUCH better but different) Somehow with a staff of R. Johnson, T. Glavine. C. Zambrano, K. Wood, a combo of M. Prior/R.Oswalt (now I have Prior, I traded Oswalt for him), and relievers J. Nathan, Percival and J. Frasor. This is a GREAT staff, but I've been stuck with a .500 win percentage while the other teams have had ridiculous winning percentages above me. Not to mention, the tough luck of Wood, Johnson & Glavine has led me with only 61 wins which is about 8th in a 12 team league. Plus any saves (I have 73 total) over your wins don't count until your wins match or exceed your saves (like in 'REAL' baseball where you can't get a save w/o a win). I'm starting to get annoyed. The D'Backs had the bases loaded with 1 one out in the top of the 9th last night and Baerga hits into a double play and Sunday Wood gets tossed after 4 1/3 while cruising to an easy win. Someone is out to get me......

As usual, Go Cubs, and if you happen to drill Oswalt in the shoulder blades, so be it. We'll understand.....

Nice to win one of those

2004-08-25T18:40:00.000-07:00

This time it's Maddux's turn to be screwed by the bullpen instead of Clement which is a shame. Not sure why Maddux took himself out of this one as he looked to be on cruise control, maybe it was Baker's decision, but I doubt it. Patterson should get the win instead of Hawkins, but I guess it doesn't work that way. The Cubs sweep a team that should have been swept and even better we destroyed them which makes it all the better. I love the laughers.

So that's what now? 7 of 8, and very well could have been 8 of 8. Maybe we will run away with the wild card after all, that would be nice. Padres, Giants & even the Dodgers will get to beat up on each other a little bit next month (unfortunately they get Colorado & Arizona to make them feel better in between, here's hoping The Big Unit pitches against all of them). We do have the lead in the all important loss column (at least they say it's more important whoever "THEY" are). The theory is that you control your own fate that way, but, let's face it, that's COMPLETELY RIDICULOUS!!!! It's MUCH, MUCH, easier to lose a game than a win game...(read that again if you have to). How many games your up or down in the standings, is what matters, whether it's losses or win, that you're ahead or behind in, really doesn't matter. Right now the Cubs are 70-56, while San Fran (if they win tonight) are 70-58. So the "EXPERTS" will say the Cubs have the advantage as they control their own destiny by winning. Well there's 36 games left and their not winning all of them, they're a game up, win column, loss column, however you want to put up.

Alou has been smokin' of late and good things coming from Sosa as well. If/When Hollandsworth returns, I hope Walker gets a few more starts at 2B and occassionally LF. Grudz has been great of late, but I think Walker has been a little greater. Either way you can't go wrong.

The Astros come in for their last 4 against us this year and hopefully we can continue to beat up on them. I do believe we'll get Oswalt and Clemens in the series at some point. Ahh...whatever...our guys are better.

Getting better...

2004-08-24T10:11:00.000-07:00

Some weak opponents and the Cubs are on a hot streak, should have been a little hotter but once again we lose a one run game, this time due to the ill-fated Macias throw on Saturday. Nonetheless we've won 5 of 6 and are tied for first in the Wild card and hopefully the injury to J. Schmidt will effect him the rest of the year.

In a surprising turn of events, Clement gets Capuano today and not B. Sheets who the Cubs have actually roughed up his last 2 outings now. Let's hope for a win for the biggest tough luck season for a pitcher you'll ever see. Crazy Z was spectacular yesterday (at least until the 7th) and may have leapfrogged Sheets in the Cy Young race. With Schmidt suffering from an injury, I think we can still hold out hope for Zambrano to sneak in for the award.

Garciaparra's heel has been acting up on him and what probably cost us the game on Saturday against the Astros (you gotta think Martinez is playing third instead of SS in that situation if Garciaparra was playing, but I could be wrong). I'm sure he'll gut it through with an occassional missed game the rest of the season, although any plans to sign him long-term will have to seriously consider the magnitude of the injury.

In other news around the league....

- The Angels are 'en fuego'. Big sweep of the Yanks is the kind of thing that can propel a team into a huge hot streak, of course they'll have to face J. Santana this weekend which is never good for a team trying to win games. The bigger news is that Glaus is already swinging a bat and launched a few in BP yesterday and it very much looks like he'll be back in early to mid-September which would be a huge boost to the team. Coupled with the resurgence of Colon in the 2nd half and the Angels might sneak away with one of those 2 playoff spots up for grabs.

- My AL picks to this point:
Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Ryan Drese
3. Curt Schilling
4. Brad Radke
5. T. Hudson (if gets enough starts it, he'll begin to move up)

MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. G. Sheffield
3. D. Ortiz
4. V. Guerrero
5. I. Suzuki
6. M. Mora
7. C. Guillen
8. M. Tejada
9. T. Hafner
10. I. Rodriguez

ROY
1. L. Ford
2. B. Crosby
3. Somebody who qualifies

Cy Young goes to Santana who along with Radke have given the Twins a huge 1-2 punch in that rotation. Hudson has been good but has missed too much time and R. Drese has been amazing considering that he pitches half his games in the Ballpark or whatever they call it these days.

MVP is M. Ramirez so far this year, Ortiz and Sheffield could sneak in there but I doubt it. Suzuki is threatening the hits record but that's about it, Guerrero has slowed a little since the start of the season but plays in a pitchers park. Somehow 2 Orioles and Tigers make my list. The Tigers will improve by about 30 games this year all by their offense and the deal Mora made with the devil ha been paying off. The biggest thing on the MVP list is the omissions. No A. Rodriguez, no A. Soriano. I really expected Soriano to enjoy the Ballpark this season and put up career numbers, but I'm not at all surprised by A-Rod. All those yapping about him deserving the MVP the last 2 (or more seasons), one of which he got, well you know what he didn't deserve any of them in my opinion. The guy is great but he feasted on his ballpark the last few seasons, not to mention was a notoriously slow starter on a team that couldn't afford a slow start. Don't get me wrong, I wish he was playing SS for the Cubs, but I believe the only year he deserved the MVP was 1996, not the last few that everyone has been harping about.

Bury the Brewers!!!!

Neifi Perez????

2004-08-19T16:13:00.001-07:00

Really, did we just sign Neifi Perez? Sadly we can only assume that Perez was signed for a purpose and what is that purpose? My hope is that it's too carry Garciaparra's stuff around (or maybe Garciaparra himself) so he doesn't strain his Achilles anymore, occasionally grab him some water and when needed come in as a defensive replacement when the score is 18-0 in favor of the Cubs. Probably jumping the gun since he's not even on the 40 man roster, but I certainly hope this isn't the answer to a left handed bat off the bench? I haven't heard a good thing or in that matter anything on Hollandsworth which can't be good. More wackiness by the Cubs.

We did win a series though and Cubs hit something other than a solo HR. Yeah!!!! Maddux gets the win after another rough 1st inning, win #301. Maddux could easily be the poster child for the UNIMPORTANCE of the win-loss record. Proponents of the win-loss record use such arguments as, a pitcher who knows how to keep his team in it, a pitcher who knows how to pitch when ahead, a pitcher who miracously keeps his run totals down below his opposing pitcher, etc, etc. Here's Maddux, who seems to always start out with a rough first inning, putting his team in a hole and he's going for his 17th straight 15 win season. Where exactly is that keeping his team in the game? By putting them in a hole in the 1st inning? Yet he still has a great win-loss record.

The only thing Maddux knows how to do is get out of games when he's ahead and be blessed with the fabolous bullpens/run support of the Braves the last decade. He's a great pitcher don't get me wrong, I love the guy, but him winning games this year and Clement not, is nothing but luck and run support. You want to know who's a good pitcher? Scan right past win-loss record and look at ERA (or runs allowed, good pitchers don't give up runs whether they're earned or not), K/BB ratio and HR's allowed. The pitcher win(or loss) means pretty much nothing, especially in this day and age. In the past, when guys were completing their own games, the win-loss record probably had a lot more validity. Run support was still an issue, but bullpen was taken out of the equation, so when Koufax, W. Johnson, etc took the mound, they knew when they started they had to outpitch the opposition's pitcher, and if they got the lead, it was up to them to keep it, So a starting pitcher truly won or lost a game. Nowadays a starting pitcher, just needs to pitch well, hope he has the lead when he leaves the game and that his bullpen can save it. How does win-lost record validate any of that?

It's gets more annoying everyday....

2004-08-18T11:28:00.000-07:00

There are many reasons the Cubs aren't doing well and they have plenty of time to right the ship, but as I mentioned yesterday it really shouldn't go down like this. They should cruise to the wild card by this point, but it looks like it will be a nail biter, let's hope the breaks go our way and the umps stop costing us runs. Last night, with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out, the Brewers flew out to center and the guy on first strayed too far and Patterson gunned him out, but the ump blew the call and the runner from 3rd scored. My understanding of the rules is that even if the guy crossed home before he was out at first, it wouldn't have counted. That being said, 2 errors that inning is why those guys were on base and later in the game L. Overbay inexplicably didn't tag up with the bases loaded after C. Counsell flew rather deeply to center, basically giving us that run back. Umps didn't cost us the game last night, but it's still frustrating to watch.

Tonight Clement gets the start....take a guess who's starting for the Brewers, one guess, go ahead...I'll give you a second....

Of course it's B. Sheets of the 2.74 ERA and insane K/BB ratio, who would be either 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young race with any run support. Who else could it have been? I've looked at the Cubs schedule for the rest of the season and if everybody stays in their rotation spots (which probably won't happen with the Wood suspension), the rest of Clement's starts will probably go like this:

Aug 23rd vs. Brewers (B. Sheets)
Aug. 28th vs. Astros (R. Clemens)
Sept. 3rd vs. Marlins (C. Pavano or J. Beckett)
Sept. 8th vs. Expos (P. Martinez circa 1997)
Sept. 14th vs. Pirates (D. Drabek circa 1990-1992 or Oliver Perez)
Sept. 19th vs. Reds (T. Seaver late 70's)
Sept. 25th vs Mets (T. Glavine,A. Leiter, Seaver early 70s)
Sept. 29th vs. Reds (J. Rijo early 90s)

After each game Clement gets splashed with a puddle from a passing car while standing in the rain waiting for the team bus.

In good news for the Cubs, the lack of run support and tough matchups will give them ammunition in the inevitable arbitration case against Clement this offseason and later they can post it on their website how they defeated him. (For those you haven't heard about this. E. Gagne went to arbitration this offseason, lost and then the Dodgers had an article on their website about the person who helped them defeat Gagne in arbitration, I assume by pointing out how overvalued closers are) Classy!!!! From what I've heard, Gagne has sworn not to resign with the Dodgers when his contract is up. Could be media hype but you can't blame the guy for being upset. Hope it's true, cause I'll take him. I agree with closers being overvalued, but if they can pitch more than one inning occasionally and completely dominant as well, they are worth it. Other than Gagne, I'd only want Rivera, maybe Hoffman, possibly Foulke, and most definitely F. Rodriguez.

Start kicking ass Cubs, it's getting annoying.

Stop playing around...

2004-08-17T16:06:00.000-07:00

In all honesty there's no such thing as a must win at this time of the year, cause as long as we stay within a game or two up to the last week we're still in it. That being said, I really am in no mood to go through the agony of the last year and have this boil down to the last week of the season when in all honesty we should wrap this up before THIS month is over. Our schedule is easy until we play the Braves the last weekend of the season and they will have wrapped up their division by then. The ups and downs and mediocre play are all well and good, but it's time to make our push and get rolling into the playoffs so we have that certain, "No One Can Beat Us" attitude and everyone will be scared to meet us in the playoffs like they should be.
Rob Neyer I recall had an article last season showing Dusty's teams records in the last month and for the most part they were quite good, no reason to stop that now.

I didn't have time to look up the Cubs stats at Miller Park, but after an impressive 1st half the Brewers have come back down to earth and still have one of the best (if not best) pitchers in the league this year (who seems to destroy the Cubbies). Team comparisions:

_________________Cubs______Brewers
Runs Scored_____546(7th)___462(15th)
AVG_____________.266(7th)__.252(14th)
OBP_____________.323(14th)_.325(12th)
SLG_____________.456(3rd)___.388(15th)

ERA_____________3.76(2nd)___4.11(11th)

Zambrano attempts to continue his dominant ways against the Brewers and faces V. Santos who has done reasonably well this season, although has struggled mightily lately. Then M. Clement gets screwed once again and faces off against Cub Killer & 2000 Olympic Hero Ben Sheets. Maddux faces the surprising(a term I assume has been used a lot this year around the Brewers) rookie Chris Capuano in the 3rd game. I expect a bunch of low scoring games and/or Sosa to break out of his slump. The season series stands at 5-3 in favor of the Brewers, but they have struggled in losing 9 of their last 12, of course so have the Cubs.

Dusty needs to do what he does best and that is get his team to forget the debacle that was that last homestand and start tearing up the NL. I haven't heard about A. Ramirez yet but Hawkins is due back from his suspension which I only HOPE means less time for Farnsworth. As for Dusty's lineup experiments, why not try this one:

Walker
Garciaparra
Ramirez
Lee
Sosa
Alou
Patterson
Barrett
Pitcher

I know Patterson has done well lately in the leadoff spot but he doesn't belong there. Baker has said he wants to keep Ramirez at the 5 spot so he's not running around the bases too much with his groin injury and he's not ready to lower Sosa. Fine!!! When the playoffs come though, try this instead, it will work better and we may have a few less solo HR's.

As usual, Go Cubs!!!!

Week in review....

2004-08-16T09:44:00.000-07:00

After a stretch of playing our closest rivals and the big trade, I was expecting to write this column with a cozy 4-5 game lead as we head into our stretch of cupcakes to finish the season. Instead we're tied cause K. Farnsworth keeps pitching, our bullpen really does suck overall and B. Froemming cost us a game on an ump decision. (Although that Beltre check swing on Saturday against Wood in the 8th was highly questionable). I'm officially worried. I really was expecting us to cruise into this wild card spot but it just doesn't look like it will happen. Plus I fully expected to kick the Dodgers asses so if/when we get them in the playoffs they'd know how bad they are and I wouldn't have to hear it from the co-workers. Oh well...

A day off and a chance to write about some other things:

- Look at them Indians, just missed a sweep and tie for the AL Central. I was talking to a buddy around the All-Star Break trying to figure out why this team wasn't better (had 3 good starters, weak division, amazing lineup)...figuring that bullpen really was that awful. Don't really think they'll win it this season but you have to think they'll be poised for another long run of contention with that lineup and staff. What a job by their GM Shapiro and impressive forecasting by Baseball Prospectus and R. Neyer (Prospectus labeled V. Martinez as probably the 5th best catcher in the majors this year & Neyer said watch out for the Indians as your surprise team, i.e. Marlins, Angels of the last 2 years).

_ There's a growing contigency of people thinking Rolen should win the MVP this year mostly due to his 100 RBI's. Although I'd be first in line not to give an award to Barry Bonds, no way in hell this year should that happen. Here's why/

Since the MVP, no matter how you define it, it is supposed to reflect who the best player of that season was, completing disregarding RBI's and hitting with runners on, would be silly, since although they may not be predictable stats, they certainly have a lot of value within a season. On the other hand, to completely disregard how a team is doing would be silly since last time I checked it was a team game and the ultimate goal is to win games . That all being said, my pick would still go to Bonds for the following reasons.

#1)The Giants aren't that bad, they're even with the Padres/Cubs for the wild card and 9 games over .500.

#2) The Giants are 3rd in runs scored in the NL, despite playing in what normally is considered a pitchers' park (although not this year for some reason) and having not a single player above a 900 OPS besides Bonds.

#3)Other than defensively, Bonds has no impact on the Giants putrid pitching and bullpen(sans J. Schmidt) which has been their weakpoint this year. Defensively he's still middle of the road for a LF.

#4)That OBP of .600 is beyond incredible

#5)Rolen has had the luxury of OBP machines Pujols and Edmonds hitting in front of him to pad his RBI totals(depending on where Rolen hits). Bonds as mentioned has no one hitting in front of him and their AVG with runners on is nearly equal.

I certainly dislike Bonds for a multitude of reasons:

a)attitude
b)armguard
c)repuation which now means he gets every fringe call on a pitch and every manager/pitcher would rather not pitch to him so they don't have to answer reporters questions on why you did pitch to him, rather than realizing you'd get him out a lot more if you did pitch to him and be hailed a genius on how did you get him out.

Like many voters I would love to find a way to vote someone else the MVP, but I just don't see it YET this year. He would have to drop a bit and one of the 3 Cards(Edmonds, Rolen, Pujols) would have to pick it up a lot. Both are doubtful.

- As for the other NL races without going much in depth, my top 5 for Cy Young are:

J. Schmidt (tough call but the W-L gives him the nod)
B. Sheets (that's one insane K/BB ratio)
R. Clemens
C. Zambrano
R. Johnson

In the less than exciting ROY race:
1. Khalil Greene ( I have to pick somebody)
2. A. Miles (Inflated Coors numbers but looks like a top notch defensive 2B)
3. K. Matsui (See comment for K. Greene)

Do your magic Dusty and let's whip the Brew Crew.

In how many ways can I say that sucked?

2004-08-13T15:15:00.000-07:00

Cubs play 3 games against a potential playoff opponent and lay a big egg in the 1st one. Impressive start by Maddux but the wind and a complete defense and bullpen collapse in the 9th and the Dodgers continue their surpising winning ways. I assume in about a week, all the talk show call-ins will finally be praising Mr. DePodesta after bashing the guy from the day he was hired. Fruitcakes out here.....

Granted I wasn't a huge fan of the Finley, Choi, Penny for LoDuca, Mota and prospects trade only in the sense that is was a weird deal to make with a team in 1st place (although I did say it would be a good trade for the future). I am not a Yale (or Harvard) graduate and should occassionally not open my big mouth. Unfortunately now I will have to probably live with the flaky Dodgers fan in my office for the next 5-10 years. The only good news is McCourt is their owner and he's going to piss a lot of his players off with his lowball contract offers, smartly though he hired DePodesta to go find cheap talent.

I'd love to post something brilliant and insightful about the Dodgers, but I really can't bring myself up to it. I only hate the Cardinals more. (if you don't understand, live out here with their fans and you will quickly understand....everything you've ever heard about a Dodger fan is probably true especially if it was negative).

Stats wise they've scored 10 less runs than the Cubs this year (539-529), hit 2 points higher (.269 LA/.267 Cubs), have an OBP edge of .337 to .324, but are outslugged by the Cubs .779 to their .769(20 less homers and playing in Dodger Stadium will do that to a team). In terms of pitching the Cubs now have the 2nd best ERA and the Dodgers the 4th, although their K/9 isn't nearly as close as they were last year. Their defense makes up for it, with the best fielding percentage, least amount of errors and 2nd in zone ratings. Like the Cubs(who are 3rd in fielding percentage and have committed the 3rd least amount of errors), their not giving games away on defense (well the Cubs have been lately actually).

Wood gets to start tomorrow as the ruling on his suspension has still not come in and then we'll see if it's the good or bad Prior on Sunday. Good news for Cubs fan is that Kaz Ishii is starting a game on Saturday and he's been horrible.

I HATE B. FROEMMING

2004-08-12T18:53:00.000-07:00

Well not the way we wanted that series to go was it.....

After all is said though, you can only blame one person and it was 2nd base umpire Bruce Froemming. At least he admitted to blowing the call. If you happened to miss it, on a hit and run, R. Aurilia smacked a ball up the middle that hit the mound and veered to the left of Grudz who was going to cover the bag. As he fell down he caught the ball and then flipped it from his back to Garciaparra who then had to avoid T. Long who was the guy stealing and Grudz who was lying on the ground and airmailed the ball into the stands behind 1st base. Aurilia went to 2nd and Long scored on the play. The problem was that Garciaparra was clearly ON the bag when he caught the ball so Long should have been out. Aurilia later scored with 2 outs and Froemming after the game admitted he blew it. IT DOESN'T MAKE ME FEEL ANY BETTER. We of course go on to lose in extra innings and now are only 1 up on the Padres with the super hot Dodgers coming to town. Although the box score will never say it, that was 2 unearned runs against the Cubs and Leicester. Horse S***!!!

The Dusty magic needs to make an appearance tomorrow and we need to forget about this game, immediately, cause it should have been a WIN!!!!

Time to make a move...

2004-08-10T15:16:00.000-07:00

The Padres roll into town for 3 games which could easily determine their season if their swept. Since we swept them in May with Maddux, Mitre and Rusch (which I had to joy to experience in person), hopefully the combo of Prior, Zambrano and Clement can do the same. As usual Clement gets matched up with their best pitcher, in this case Jake Peavy. As a team, they've scored 30 less runs than the Cubs this year with the same team batting average (.267) but a slightly higher OBP (Cubs .325-Padres.335). The Cubs have outslugged them .456 to .395 (Cubs are 3rd best- Padres are 3rd worst (14th overall in the NL). A lot can be attributed to playing at Petco Park as it has played as the most extreme pitchers park so far this year (although most people prefer 3 year averages meaning we really won't know about Petco for 2 more seasons). Phil Nevin though hates Petco:

"I know I had three balls this week that would have changed games this homestand and didn't go out," said Nevin before the postgame exhange -- perhaps the loudest since Towers became GM in 1996. "Just make it real. That's all I asked."

Not exactly sure what "Just make it real" means, considering centerfield at Petco is the 2nd shortest in the NL(according to baseball-almanac.com) interestingly enough only to Dodger Stadium (also a massive pitchers' park) RF is one of the shortest in the league as well and LF is about middle of the road. Considering Dodger Stadium, Angel Stadium, SBC Park & Network Associates are all pitchers park as well maybe Nevin should not be blaming Kevin Towers but the state of California. I'm sure our governor will be anxiously awaiting his phone call. Of course when I went to Petco, the Cubs clobbered the ball the entire series so maybe it's just that Giles, Klesko and Nevin are 33 and not aging well (particularly Klesko).

Take care of business Cubbies!!! 2 out of 3 at least.

Maddux

2004-08-09T12:44:00.000-07:00

Here's a good article on Maddux at si.com, lots of fun quotes from other players and managers:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/john_donovan/08/06/maddux.300/index.html

Some other thoughts....

2004-08-09T11:33:00.000-07:00

A day off for the Cubbies and I don't really want to recall the horror that was this weekend (particularly Sunday's game). Easily should have been 2 out of 3 this weekend, particularly the bad defense yesterday which will never show up in any box score or stat, but yet we'll all know that not wearing your sunglasses and Grudz's wacky decision to not throw to 2nd coupled with Barrett not covering 3rd, pretty much cost us the game (Farnsworth's antics aside). In good news, we now have a 2 game lead in the Wild Card after a 6 game road trip which I believe we started a game back of the Padres(3 game swing is nice)

I think once a week I'll write about the rest of baseball, cause it's just kind of a fun thing to do.

- Cards acquire Larry Walker in something of a surprise trade. Good move for them as it seems to have cost them nothing and Larry Walker is still good. Not so good for the Cubs when the playoffs come.

- AL West- The Angels, Oakland and Rangers pretty much play the same competition over the next 2 months, and in particular the next month brings mostly patsies for all 3 teams. The Angels so far have have been taking care of business (took 3 from K.C. over the weekend) while Texas has not (been getting beat by the Orioles) and the A's have been locked up still with the tough teams. Their records so far vs. teams currently under .500 are Angels (30-8), A's (23-9) and Rangers (25-18). After today's games though, the A's only have a 3 game series versus the Red Sox, plus the normal back and forth between the Angels, Marines and Rangers that finish off the season, everyone else they play is close or under .500. The Angels and Rangers have series left versus the Yankees, Red Sox and Twins still. Currently you have to give the nod to the A's based on schedule. I think the Rangers will fade here at the end and the Angels definitely have a chance but need a little luck. Colon needs to continue to pitch well, b)Washburn and Molina have to come back from their injuries and c)Glaus needs to come back in September (highly unlikely).

- I was rooting hard against the Dodgers making the playoffs mostly cause I've never liked them or any of their fans. And the famous Dodger Dogs is a big sham. But the more I think about it, the more I like it so I can get playoff tickets when the Cubs come into town to kick their asses.

- Sosa is making me ill, he's best when he's patient and willing to take the ball to right field. Neither things he's attempting at this moment. As a manager Dusty's biggest job is to keep confidence in his players but he needs to seriously think about dropping Alou and Sosa behind Ramirez and Lee.

- Other than I think the AL West/ Wild card there is the potential that all of these races could be sewn up before September. The Cubs have the chance to beat up on the Dodgers and Padres this week and create some distance in the wild card, and the Braves/Dodgers/Cards are running away with their divisions. In the AL, the Twins have pretty much locked things up with Ordonez and Thomas out for the year in Chicago and I don't see the Indians contending this year. Yankees have wrapped up the East.

Padres come into town tomorrow and the Cubs can put a serious hurt on their season with another sweep just like in May. That would be nice.

Not Coors Field...

2004-08-06T14:32:00.000-07:00

Well from a hitters park to a pitchers park, although for some reason it hasn't played like one this year, mostly I'm sure cause Mr. Bonds is getting on base at a .600 clip, which would help anyone's offense. Here are the Cubs numbers at SBC(formerly Pac Bell Park which ESPN.com still called Pac Bell Park in their preview today)

Name__________G___.AVG___OBP__SLG___HR__HR/AB__Career HR/AB
Grudzielanek__22__.292__.324__.365___1___96.0_______79.7
Walker________7___.360__.407__.480___0___0.00_______43
Sosa__________15__.340__.464__.679___5___10.6_______13.9
Alou__________12__.326__.418__.558___3___14.3_______21.5
D. Lee _______12__.357__.440__.571___2___21.0_______21.8
Ramirez_______10__.361__.425__.556___2___18.0_______23.5
Patterson______6__.240__.231__.360___0____0.0_______33.7
Barrett_______12__.235__.372__.412___2___17.0_______42.1

Obviously it's more important whose on the mound than where the games are played, but I'm always curious about how guys do at certain ballparks. In a move that should drastically improve Maddux's 300 quest, Schmidt got moved up a day and will pitch tonight against Clement. Maybe it's cause Maddux hit him for a .375 clip (3 for 8) and Clement has gone 0-5 against him at the plate. (Okay maybe not) Lee and Ramirez have had some luck against Schmidt, while most everyone else has not. The Giants have been rather pitching poor this year and are trotting out some guy named T. Walker tomorrow who hasn't started all year and hasn't done very well in the bullpen either. Somebody named Lowry pitches Sunday and his numbers look good in limited action but so do Woods'.

As for the pitchers at SBC/Pac Bell:
Clement 1-2, 5.50 ERA, .212 BAA, 18IP, 16K, 13BB
Maddux 2-1, 1.29 ERA, .198 BAA, 21IP, 11K, 3BB
Wood 3-1, 4.50 ERA, .227 BAA, 30 IP, 36K, 18BB

Maddux has obviously enjoyed the spatious grounds up there in San Francisco. Clement has had his issues, particularly with walks for whatever reason. The big question is how to deal with Mr. Bonds (when you have an OBP over .500, you're automatically addressed as Mr. here at Transplanted Cubs Fan).

#1) I don't like the guy cause well he doesn't play for my team and he really does seem like a dick, media reports aside. #2)He's the closest thing to a baseball god since M. Mantle, B. Ruth or T. Williams. #3)I'll argue till it hurts, if you'd pitch to him like any normal All-Star his HR's would certainly go up along with his RBI's, but just about everything else would go down, including the most important number, which is how many runs the Giants will score against you. I think the league has turned into a bunch of patsies. Go after the guy and watch his numbers magically reduce to a .310/.450/.600. Still great numbers, but they will score less runs and your team will win more games against him. Luckily I believe Dusty believes in his pitching staff and unless first base is open, with runners on, and it's late, we'll see the Cubs go after him. Here are some of the Cubs pitchers numbers against Mr. Bonds:

___________AB___H___AVG___OBP___SLG___HR___BB
Maddux_____119__34__.286__.397__.529__8____22
Clement_____19__6___.316__.458__.842__3____5
Wood________20__6___.300__.481__.450__0____4
Mercker_____34__9___.257__.250__.429__0____0
Remlinger___17__6___.353__.500__1.118_4____5

Well apparently Maddux is as smart as they say as he won't even pitch to him and I don't even have to look it up, but I GUARANTEE that he hasn't walked a batter more in his career. Clement should be a little weary but he's been a better pitcher this year than in the past and if I see Remlinger in the game against him rather than Mercker, there will be lots of screaming going on in my house.

Unfortunately Prior/Z aren't pitching this series as I think if you're going to have any luck against Mr. Bonds and you're not lefty, you need to throw hard and willing to pitch inside and as Clemens said, "Knock that armguard right off". On a sidenote I would like to see when Bonds started wearing that armguard and if it coincides with the year 2000 when his numbers began to skyrocket.

In terms of the Cubs, 2 out of 3 would suffice and make the Giants seriously think about next year and start the planning for Bonds breaking Aaron's record. Also all the games are available on TV this weekend which makes me happy, including Maddux's 300 quest tomorrow on FOX for the whole nation. As always GO CUBS!!!!!

3rd base dilemma

2004-08-05T15:05:00.000-07:00

Probably a little early to discuss what the Cubs should be doing for next year but I've been a little surprised that Hendry has not tried to sign Ramirez yet to an extension. Of course I don't have all the facts here other than Ramirez will be a free agent this offseason and well there's no reason not to sign him. He's young (26 supposedly), has enjoyed a year and a half of great baseball since joining the Cubs, and has vastly improved his defense this year. I suppose he may want to test the market, but I would do everything to not let him.

Looking through the league, there are maybe 5 third basemen I'd take over Ramirez.

Rolen
Lowell
Chavez
Blalock
A. Rodriguez

Well none of those guys are available, so who is or could be that are pretty good:

Mora
Glaus
Beltre

Mora has made some crazy deal with the devil and exploded the last 2 years despite being 32(very rare for a guy to enjoy his best years in his early 30's). I don't know his contract status but when you're the Orioles I'm imagining anybody not named Tejada is available. I don't want to talk about the nutcase that is Beltre. I know he's a free agent this year and putting up some crazy numbers at Chavez Ravine and definitely a better defensive player than Ramirez, but I wouldn't touch him. #1) The guy is certfiably flaky, over the last 3 years he seems to only produce when he needs to (either the Dodgers bring in someone to compete with him like Ventura or it's his contract year). That leaves us with Glaus, who I actually would prefer over Ramirez, he's definitely a better hitter, a little better with the glove, and has just turned 28 legitimately. When healthy I honestly believe only A-Rod, Rolen and maybe Chavez and Blalock are better. He's been injured most of the year which means you may be able to get him a little cheaper than he's worth and then still be able to sign Garciaparra and a M. Ordonez next year (a boy can dream right?).

That all being said, nobody knows what Glaus' plans are next year. He is a native Californian and went to college there. The Angels want to slim their payroll next year and have a 3B stud in Dallas McPherson waiting. That leaves L.A, San Diego, Oakland and San Francisco. Padres and A's are set at 3B, I don't know what Alfonzo's contract is but for some reason I don't see him going up there. He is on the other hand, the exact type player that DePodesta and the Dodgers want, power and patience. If I was a betting man, I'd lay odds on him ending up in L.A. and some sucker taking Beltre (hopefully not the Cubs).

So Hendry, go find Ramirez's agents number and hammer out a deal. He's going to end up being worth it.

That's what I'm talking about

2004-08-05T14:53:00.000-07:00

Cubs are now 4-0 with Nomar, this is good, not that he's played all that spectacularly and well it was 3 games vs. the Rockies, I believe the first below .500 team we've played in 50 games.

It wasn't the runfest that we were all expecting, but the wins were nice. Prior looked like the Prior of last year with great control and overwhelming stuff. The bats wake up near the end again and we get the sweep we need. Now off for 3 in San Francisco where Maddux goes for 300 wins again unfortunately against J. Schmidt.

Patterson continues to enjoy Coors Field along with leading off and shows off some bunting skills, plus he took a walk. I am beginning to seriously worry about Sosa, he still hits HR, but is not the consistent on base guy he's been in the past and he's been back long enough to not blame it on injuries.

Last night's game was vintage Coors Field where neither bullpen could do anything mainly in the forms of Farnsworth and Chacon.

I'll write a little on SBC park and of course how to deal with Mr. Bonds tomorrow.

A few thoughts....

2004-08-04T10:15:00.000-07:00

Nice recovery from Wood last night, what started out as a potential Coors Field ERA massacre, turned out to be a hell of a good start. Cubs offense had one big inning and then took the rest of the game off to watch Woods pitch apparently and catch all the pop-ups the Rockies were hitting into.

A couple of other observations....

Why is Corey Patterson hitting leadoff? I can hope it will only be against lefties as he's hit them rather well this year(small sample size ALERT, small sample size ALERT), Unless it's some exercise in patience for Patterson so he learns to take some pitches. If he magically learns to get on base at .370-.400 clip (hell I'd take .350) and with Garciaparra's ability to put ball in play and you have the makings of the 1984 Daily Double(of course Sandberg probably should have been batting 3rd but that's another story). Anyway make it stop Baker and put Walker back up there where he belongs(lefties or righties).

Speaking of Walker, he was in the on-deck circle in the 9th for Wood, but for some reason with only a 2 run lead in the 9th at Coors, Baker then chose Goodwin. Way to give up an out Baker.

Nice to see a guy who still chokes up on the bat in Aaron Miles....a lost art. I think Grudz still does it once in awhile but in my experience it certainly does cut down on strikeouts. I did play some baseball back in my day (like high school) and I went from a .200 hitter to a .300 hitter when I changed two things. #1)Choked up with 2 strikes and #2)stopped pressing and decided I was just going to have fun. #2 definitely had more to do with it than #1, but with guys on base putting the ball in play has its virtues particularly if you're not a big power hitter, which I was not. I don't want to see Sosa start doing it, but if your A. Miles it's definitely a good idea. You keep hitting .300 in this league and you'll always have a job. That being said, he doesn't walk a whole lot and has no power and apparently has had a big boost from Coors Field, but he'll definitely find a job with let's say the Anaheim Angels one day.

Big Z goes today and tries to keep his ERA in tact at Coors. A Cubs sweep is close to necessary as the next 2 weeks brings a bunch of games with the West and the teams we're directly competing with for the Wild Card.

Video Game Baseball

2004-08-03T11:28:00.000-07:00

That was always my take on Coors Field...it seemed playing there was like playing one of EA's video games on the Rookie Level where you could hit a HR pretty much anytime you needed it. In honor of the Mile High city and since I'm a big fan of baseball parks, I think for road games I'll be giving you guys how players have fared in those ballparks. I was more curious to see how the Cubs pitchers have done at Coors Field, since I've always thought if you wanted a semi-successful pitching staff there, you need guys like Wood, Prior, and Zambrano who rely heavily on K's and at least in Z's and Prior's case not giving up a whole bunch of HR's. That will get you success in almost any park but well you know what I mean.

So here are some interesting numbers from Cubs at the great video game ballpark.

Name__________G__.AVG__OBP__SLG__HR__HR/AB__Career HR/AB
Grudzielanek__45__.309__.359__.450__3___63.7_______79.7
Walker________80__.341__.392__.610__15__17.8_______43
Sosa(Coors)___43__.362__.439__.782___20___8.7______13.9
Sosa(Mile High)12__.326__.429__.755__4____13.3
Alou (Coors)__ 30__.320__.381 __.631__10__12.2______21.5
(Mile High)_____7 __.400__.419__.600___1____30
D. Lee ________21__.324__.395__.507___1____71_______21.8
Ramirez_______21__.381__.385__.952___3____7________23.5
Patterson______ 6__.400__.423__1.000__4____6.3______33.7
Barrett_________15__.250__.340__.455__2____22.0_____42.1

I threw in Mile High Stadium numbers for Alou and Sosa as they were playing back then and the park was at the same altitude, so same issues. Garciaparra has played 3 games at Coors and did well but it wasn't worth mentioning. No suprise to anyone that other than maybe Barrett whose numbers are still good, all the Cubs have spanked the ball in Denver. For Sosa, Alou, Ramirez, Walker and Patterson they enjoy their best HR/AB at Coors (a close second is Minute Maid Park for Sosa, there are a couple of AL parks he's done better in but in only 3 games so I threw them out). Amusingly D. Lee has only 1 career HR at Coors in 21 Games while hitting 6 career HR's at Dodger Stadium in 22 games(an extreme pitcher's park). So my assumption is the Cubs hitters are frothing at the mouth as they touched down in Denver yesterday...as do all hitters I'm sure.

As for pitching matchups, we get Fassero tonight and lefties have not been kind to us mostly this year, particularly for Alou, Grudz and Sosa. Sosa is also dealing with his dizziness issues but I expect him to play as I'm sure the opportunity to pad his numbers at Coors will keep him in the lineup and August has historically been his best month, J. Wright has pitched well in limited action in his 2 starts since being called back up, but don't expect that to last and then J. Jennings for the 3rd game and well he's not the Rookie of the Year anymore.

Now the big question Cubs pitching. and their career numbers at Coors

Wood 5.25 ERA 12IP 3 BB 12 K .295 BA 2 HR
Zambrano 3.46 ERA 13IP 4 BB 7 K .188 BA 0 HR
Prior 2.08 ERA 13IP 1 BB 15K .204BA 0 HR

Well Prior hasn't been Prior this year and I still think they should shut him down and let Rusch pitch, not cause Rusch is better but because Prior is the future of this franchise and no reason to mess with that when you have viable options. We are talking limited sample size here but Prior and Z have had some success, Wood has not. Maddux and Clement luckily are the two guys who have been hit around the most and both will miss Coors Field this year. (Maddux 5.75 ERA at Coors with .323 BA against/ Clement has a 7.29 ERA with .328 BA against)

Well hopefully the Cubs bats continue their resurgence and our bullpen doesn't blow it, as a 3 game sweep would be real nice before we head into San Francisco and Bonds. I expect a particularly big series from Ramirez who has been hot lately and has loved Coors Field along with Sosa.

What Did I Miss?

2004-08-02T11:24:00.000-07:00

Well let's see, perusing the Cubs news over the last week...

Called up R. Dempster and sent down T. Wellemeyer (maybe that will help the bullpen)

Hollandsworth seems to be getting better and should be back within the next couple of weeks (Bench needs him badly)

OH YEAH, we got Nomar Garciaparra for some minor league scrubs. Apparently Jim Hendry has read "Moneyball" and has liked the idea of the "holy S***" trade (or something like that, I forgot the exact terminology).

To say the least that was impressive, of course I was proven at least half wrong. I really didn't think they go after Garciaparra because A)it would cost too much and B)well he's not that good defensively, well he didn't cost too much but he's still not that good defensively. Honestly who cares, the glaring hole in our lineup is gone, it has to give the team a huge morale boost, and we gave up a guy who may be a really good reliever (F. Beltran), another guy who may be a everyday 2nd or 3rd baseman, but probably never an All-Star(B. Harris) and a 19 year old lefty who sounds good but is experiencing arm problems already. Plus we got an outfielder in Matt Murton who has some nice stats in A ball. Way to go Hendry, now go get some bullpen help cause Dempster isn't the answer.

I know a lot of people are high on Dempster and think he may be able to replace Clement next season in the rotation, but if you look at his career numbers there, um, how to put this gently. UGLY!!!

He had one great half season in 2000, but his career ERA is over 5.00 and sure he strikes out a lot of people but he walks an alarming rate, not to mention gives up a ton of HR's and that's with formerly pitching half his games in pitcher friendly Pro Player Stadium. And the tendency after Tommy John surgery is that your control takes the longest to get back and well he hasn't had a lot of that to start with.

That being said, what an amazing trade, potential Hall of Fame rental for 2 months and they gave up very little. That's the way to do it.

I won't talk about the other big MLB trades other than to say, obviously the White Sox realize there season is over without M. Ordonez and F. Thomas and the Dodgers sure didn't seem to make trades for a team that is ahead in the West and looking to make the playoffs. Penny is a good pickup, Choi I still love and think he'll be a superstar ONE DAY, and well Finley is old and moving from a hitter friendly park to a pitcher friendly park and has batted somehting like .184 since the All-Star break. Wacky moves but maybe Depodesta knows something we don't, cause that was a steep price to pay. I think in the long-run they'll be good trades but not the moves you make when your 2-3 games up in the division.

More Maddux

2004-07-22T14:43:00.000-07:00

The Cubs send me off with a couple of victories, thank you!

I'll be on vacation for the next week, so unless it starts storming a whole lot in Puerto Vallarta, there won't be much blogging going on.

Maddux throws another complete game with Javier Valentin ruining what could have been another shutout. 92 pitches, 0 BB, 6 K's. 2 more wins to the illustrious 300 and 6 more wins to keeping his 15 wins a season streak alive. Unlike Clemens who I always appreciated but never really liked much, I never could root against Maddux. Even when he tore our hearts out and left us, I always felt it was the Cubs management's fault in some way and all accounts point to that conclusion.

He's by far the smartest guy on the field everytime he steps out there, has never really been hurt and his glovework and respectable bat for a pitcher show me he knows every little thing helps to get a victory. Just sounds like a classy guy, who deserves all the success that has come his way. Plus that "Chicks Dig the Long Ball" commercial is still one of my all-time favorites.

While I'm on vacation, hopefully I'll come up with some regular features for the blog to keep you guys coming back, plus thoughts on some research projects I want to get started on. In the meantime I assume, Hendry and Baker will have fixed what ails the Cubs in the next week and we'll be back on top of the Wild Card by the time I get back. (I will not speak of catching the Cards unless we get within 5 games)

Good luck Cubs!!!!

I'm not happy

2004-07-20T16:36:00.000-07:00

INT - CUBS LOCKER ROOM

(Door knock)

"What?" - (Disgruntled Cubs locker room)

(Clubhouse attendant opens door)

"Thought you'd might like these back" - (Cardinals messenger hands over a sack)

"What's this?" - (Cubs clubhouse attendant)

"Thought you'd like you your cajones back for the rest of the year...enjoy the wild card race along with the other 8 teams" - (Cardinals messenger as contingency of Cardinals players laugh in background)
---

To say the least we got it handed to us in Wrigley, I can't think of anything more embarrassing. As I mentioned the Cards have the "magic" going for them this year, today's magic was conjured up by the A. Pujols and his 3 freakin' HR's. The only saving grace was that it happened in July and we still have a chance to recover rather than the Cards meltdown in Wrigley last year in September. Not sure why Hawkins was so upset, I didn't watch much of the 9th especially after Pujols' 3rd of the day. I assume he felt he was being squeezed by the ump or maybe the ump gave up those 2 HR's. I tuned back in to see the Cubs load them up in the 9th and pitifully fly out to our new arch-enemy Edmonds.

Well let's hope Dusty gets the team refocused by tomorrow and expect some bullpen help via the trade VERY, VERY SOON!!

Wavin' Wendall Sends Cubs Home With a Loss

2004-07-20T00:17:00.000-07:00

I crave to write headlines for ESPN.com one day.

We'll get to the Crazy 'Z' in a minute. Yesterday was a game of wasted opportunities, it started in the 1st when Sammy tapped a ball to the mound after Patterson aggressively took 3rd on the Lankford bobble and it got ugly from there on out. Now I didn't see all the replays but I'm going to blame Wendall Kim AGAIN on sending Ramirez home on that blooper from Barrett with NOBODY out. Yes 1st & 3rd no outs OR take a chance and get thrown out at home. Freakin' brilliant!!! There is the chance that Ramirez went through the sign and I'm all for being aggressive, but there's aggresive smart and aggresive stupid. Patterson trying to take 3rd with one out is aggresive smart (with the play in front of him no less), Ramirez trying to go home with nobody out...aggresive stupid. I believe that's the 2nd time this season Kim has sent a runner home against the Cards and had them thrown out, the other was in St. Louis on a blooper to Edmonds who nailed somebody by a mile.

And then there is Crazy 'Z'. At least he brings entertainment value to the mound. It was the kind of baseball you can't just help but enjoy. Plunks Edmonds the 1st time, who comes back and takes him deep and stops to admire it. Crazy 'Z' takes exception to the watching and lets Edmonds know it. Benches clear. Edmonds comes up a 3rd time and 'Z' brings the serious heat and gets him on 3 pitches & then lets Edmonds know all about it. After'Z' gives up the game winning homer, what the hell I'm not lasting much longer anyway, might as well hit Edmonds again. Too bad they won't face each other again this year unless it's in the playoffs. I expect a suspension for Zambrano for 5 games.

Morris is pitching tomorrow and if there isn't a warning before the game expect one of the Cubs sluggers to get nailed tomorrow. But here's the difference and why I HATE M. Morris & LaRussa. He'll aim for the head or hands, while 'Z' hit Edmonds square in the ribs & there is a big difference!!! If you're gonna hit a guy, hit him in the ribs or lower, when you start head-hunting, your what amounts to a piece of s***. I have no problem with throwing at guys, it's just a part of the game, but just nail him in the back & move on.

Tomorrow should be fun and a long one, as I'm sure the benches wil clear a few times. Well a Cub loss should just about put all hopes for a division crown to rest.

'Bout as big as they get in July

2004-07-19T15:41:00.000-07:00

Okay it's a big series for us if not the Cardinals. The Cardinals don't seem to want to lose lately and the bigger the hole gets the harder it will be particularly with no more games left against the Cardinals. Although no official word yet at least at cubs.com but Rusch is listed as the probable on espn.com for tomorrow and he has not fared well against the Cards this year in 3 starts(plus one relief appearance):

5.31 ERA, 20.1 IP. 3 HR (1 less HR than he's given up to everyone else this year) .259 BA

The silver lining: He has a 2.40 ERA in day games compared to a 4.11 ERA in night games & 2.91 ERA at Wrigley this year(overall), compared to 11.12 ERA at Busch.

He had one good outing against them at home on May 22nd (7 IP, 1 ER), and a respectable at home one on June 7th (7 IP, 4 ER).

The weekend should have gone better especially since we beat Sheets on Saturday, but vintage Maddux on Saturday sure would have been fun to watch, although listening to it was just as fun. Here's Maddux line in the 2nd half last year compared to the 1st half:

2003 2nd half:
9-3, 3.03 ERA, 7 HR, 11/48 K/BB 92 IP

2003 1st half
7-8 4.63 ERA, 17 HR, 22/76 K/BB, 126.1 IP

His career stats don't show the same anomaly between 1st and 2nd half, but here's hoping for a big time 2nd half from Maddux as it would be just as good as a big trade.

I missed most of Sunday's game but it appears that Wood is at near the top of his game already.

We'll see if Dusty has the magic going for him this year starting tonight. GO CUBS!!!

Poor Clement

2004-07-16T15:47:00.000-07:00

Another game, more run support issues for poor old Clement. He brought in his own run as well or it could have been worse. I guess the Cubs are missing A. Ramirez quite a bit & the weak bench minus Hollandsworth. Sosa's 0-8 does not bode well either. And Sheets pitches tomorrow so I assume runs will be a problem for at least another game.

I listened to the game over MLB radio as it wasn't on WGN. I chose the Milwaukee broadcast as listening to Uecker is always a joy. For those who haven't ever heard him and have the capabilities, try listening to him as he does the game mostly himself(some guy occasionally pops in, but he's not the color guy) much like Vin Scully and there's a reason he's in the Hall of Fame for it.

I love watching the games on TV, but the romance of a radio call is still quite enjoyable especially when someone as good as Uecker (or Scully) are painting the pictures. I love Pat & Ron and all but they're big-time homers which isn't a horrible thing but Ron's primordial screams can get a little much at times. I'm not bashing him...wouldn't dare especially with the "This Old Cub" sentiment going around, I'm just saying if you get a chance, click on another team's radio call and you may discover a great thing.

Update on Prior

2004-07-16T13:58:00.000-07:00

Good news from Cub camp and apparently I jumped the gun a little bit. On cubs.com they had the following quote:

"The exact words used by Dr. (Stephen) Adams were that the ligament is robust and in perfect shape. There's absolutely no possibility of Tommy John (surgery) or ligament reconstruction or anything like that."

-- GM Jim Hendry

He's having a bone scan later today and I'll assume they'll probably stick with Rusch and we'll see Prior in a few weeks.

Prior injury resurfaces for Cubs

2004-07-16T12:04:00.000-07:00

That's a shout out to ESPN and their ridiculous headlines. So Prior's injury is back and the Cub nation holds their collective breath until MRI results are announced. No matter what they show and judging with how cautious they've been with Wood and Prior earlier, don't expect to see much more of Prior the rest of the year. Cause honestly if it takes another 2 months out of his season and he's back in September on seriously limited pitch counts it's just not worth it. Let him get healthy and go to PLAN B.

I expect a Hendry to make a trade like last year to fill a huge hole caused by injury. I feel GM's tend to get comfortable dealing with certain other GM's and Hendry has made deals with the Pirates, A's and Marlins recently. A K. Benson/J. Wilson trade is possible but I pray it doesn't happen. Benson has to be the most overrated player out there and why does he keep coming up in trade discussions? We'd be better off with Rusch for the rest of the year. Here are Benson's numbers:

6-7 4.42 ERA 40/71 BB/K and a 5.81 K/9 ratio (2004)

The rest of his seasons have been worse except 2000 when he had the following line:

10-12 3.85 ERA 86/184 BB/K and a 7.61 K/9 ratio

And if we played Neyer's, which of these does is not like the others? 2000 would stick out and you would see that he's at best an average pitcher who happened to be a #1 pick. J. Wilson is having a career year in what I believe is his contract year. Good defender, probably would help us this year. If they get a pitcher from the Pirates I'd prefer it to be O. Perez:

5-4 3.24 ERA 37/117 BB/K and 10.82 K/9 ratio

But I'm assuming Littlefield plans for Perez to be the part of the next great Pirates team and any trades would be financially motivated hence all the Benson talk.

I also assume if the news is bad on Prior, the R. Johnson rumors will heat up. I hope so, I'd trade 2 pitching prospects and Dubois or Kelton for him. I don't know what the DBacks want and everything depends on Tribune opening up their huge cash reserves but when your this close to the playoffs and your as stocked as the Cubs I think you take that chance for a few reasons:

#1)To borrow from Baseball Prospectus: TINSTAAPP - There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Take the guy who's still at the top of his game...there are injury risks but there are injury risks with any pitcher.

#2)If you haven't noticed the Cubs pitching staff is quite stocked at the major league level. Wood, Zambrano, Prior aren't going anywhere. Maddux is signed at least for next year and I'm going to assume they year after that as his option is based on innings pitched. That leaves one spot for the next year and the year after, assuming Clement is not resigned. Sure I'd love to see Brownlie or Guzman in the rotation but do Dusty, Cubs fan, Hendry have the patience for the inevitable learning curve?Cause none of them as far as I can gather are the mortal lock as Prior was. So rookie learning his way or Randy "F*****" Johnson for the next 2 years?

The big dilemma is his contract as it would seriously hurt our chances to fill the potential LF and SS gaps. Not to mention the raise that Prior, Zambrano and A. Ramirez have to be due to get. But if they can make the finances work, I'd would seriously pursue it.

Ouch!!!

2004-07-15T22:06:00.000-07:00

Elbow pain is the word on Prior and apparently it felt the same as in spring training. Not sounding promising. If the MRI doesn't look good tomorrow and Tribune opens up the purse strings, a R. Johnson trade is a definitive possibility. It would probably cost them 2 pitching prospects, & a position player. I think it's worth it and you let Clement go next year. In the mean time, Rusch gets to go back in the starting lineup after a stellar bullpen effort tonight.

As for the game, I was on my drive home when the Cubs scored most of their runs, but as I mentioned G. Rusch saved the day and the bullpen shut them down. Good way to start the 2nd half.

Prior goes down

2004-07-15T17:42:00.000-07:00

I have a weird set-up at work where I can watch games on WGN but without the sound(Don't ask). Plus I wasn't really paying much attention except to see Prior walk into the dugout and lots of head shaking by Cubs players, coaches and McPhail. Considering everyone pretty much agrees upon that the Cubs need to stay healthy if they have a chance at the Cards....VERY, VERY BAD SIGN.

Plus D. Lee swung and missed at the 1st pitch in the bottom of the 2nd and fell down on the swing. That was comical!! And A. Ramirez is still on the bench. Not a good start to the 2nd half.

Right as I was about to post this Lee hits it out. Sorry for laughing at you.

Great Article on Playoff Baseball

2004-07-15T16:45:00.000-07:00

Christian over at The Cub Reporter sent me this link from Hardball Times that somewhat statistically proves my point about playoff baseball.

If Beane is the genius we all make him out to be than I wouldn't be surprised to see him tinker his team a little come playoff time, if only in terms of telling Macha to be a little more aggressive. Easier said than done since you haven't worked on bunts all season or probably don't even have a sign for stealing, but we'll see if Beane isn't too stubborn.

Also thanks to David Pinto at Baseball Musings for mentioning me in his blog. One of my favorites and you should check it out.

Baseball is back

2004-07-15T16:08:00.000-07:00

The last 3 days suck every year...at least that Laker trade finally went down & Kobe signed. (I live in L.A. and work amongst a group of Laker fans). Hopefully they'll go back to baseball on ESPN.

Anyway Cubs vs. Brewers for 4. I have never been to one of these games yet (I was supposed to go for my bachelor party 3 years ago, flew back to Chicago and everything, but the game got rained out.....party was still fun though). I do remember going to some Brewers/White Sox games when I went to school at Marquette. Now those were fun....drunken bafoonry, things flying around the bleachers, fights in the stands, fun for the whole family. So if anyone cares to let me know if the games are as raudy as that I'd appreciate a line.

So I'm still trying to figure out how to handle upcoming series, for now all I have to say is Play Ball & stay healthy Cubs!!!

And who can we pay so that Sheets gets lost coming to the park or possibly has an unfortunate accident involving the L-train? Any takers?

More A's & Billy Beane

2004-07-15T16:02:00.000-07:00

First off, why I brought this whole topic up at this time was only cause it's been bugging me ever since the A's should have destroyed the Twins 2 years ago, except Art Howe decided to pitch Hudson twice instead of his lefties against a team that was horrible against lefties. Then managed to butcher a bunch of defensive plays and basically watched the control of Brad Radke whip through the walk-waiting offense. Obviously the Howe move was on his own, but the rest seemed to do with team construction.

I just wanted to clarify as my overall point is I think the A's fan are going to be about as frustrated as Braves fan. That's not a terrible thing making the playoffs every year, I just think they'll be losing a lot more than winning when it comes to the playoffs. Sure a lot of it is luck, but I think there are ways to help yourself in the playoffs and the big one is to be aggressive and realize that it IS THE PLAYOFFS. Normal rules don't necessarily apply. (By the way this is my biggest complaint with Dusty besides high pitch counts is he tends to stick with his guns come playoff time and that's normly a recipe for disaster) Bring J. Beckett back on 2 days rest, move players around to get your best lineup out there (McKeon took a chance on a hot-hitting Cabrera last year and left him in), bring R. Johnson back on one day rest, etc.

Beane has done an amazing job putting together that team, no doubt about that, but I think he's a little short-sighted to completely frown upon certain aspects of the game when they could be useful in certain situations. When it gets time to the playoffs, finding a competitive edge over another team is harder to find and maybe it will come in the form of taking an extra base, or a sac bunt, or whatever the case may be. And I'm sure if you ask Beane he'll say he's not against those things but I distinctly remember in Moneyball, I think it was the coach R. Washington saying he's never been on a team that frowned upon aggressiveness like the A's do. So I'm sure he's scared the coaches and players into believing that. Who really knows but that's the impression.

If they make the playoffs 10 years in a row, I guess their chances of winning one will go up, but honestly they've been hot every year going into the playoffs and that's been the complaint that the hot teams always win the Series. So for now I'm sticking to my theory that the A's will falter in the playoffs every year until I see a little change in their philosophy. And it's not just bunting or stealing, it's being aggressive and putting the pressure on the other team and their defense at times and looking for every edge possible at every point of a game.

Lineup constuction

2004-07-15T13:17:00.000-07:00

Read this at Rotoworld.com which took it from Arlington Daily Herald:

ADH:
If the Cubs continue to have trouble scoring runs, manager Dusty Baker could be forced to retool his lineup by putting Todd Walker, Michael Barrett, and Aramis Ramirez in the top three spots.

ROTOWORLD COMMENTARY:
Moises Alou could be bumped down to the sixth spot, as he's hit just .201 since the start of June. And at this point of his career, Sammy Sosa is much better suited for cleanup duties than hitting third. Jul. 15 - 8:17 am et

Uh, what? Sammy is better suited for cleanup duties rather than 3rd compared to A. Ramirez. Doubt it matters much but I'd rather have the guy who walks a bit more in front of the guy who's raking the ball. Right now they are having very similar years and here are they're lines right now along with the rest of the regulars:

S. Sosa .279/.372/.567
A. Ramirez .326/.374/.550

D. Lee .304/.375/.516
M. Alou .276/.330/.506
C. Patterson .274/.329/.443
M. Barrett .291/.342/.492
T. Walker .283/.367/.496
M. Grudzielanak .286/.342/.357 (small sample size)

Whoever plays SS bats 8th.

My lineup would be:
T. Walker/Grudz
D. Lee
S. Sosa
A. Ramirez
M. Alou
M. Barrett
C. Patterson
SS

I like having the guys who don't mind walking Walker/Sosa/Lee in front of the guys who are hit first Ramirez/Alou/Barrett/Patterson. Why? RBI's (which actually matter) tend to happen when you hit the ball not when you take a walk, hence Ramirez''s gaudy numbers this year. That being said the Cubs offense has just been in a funk lately, I think it will come out soon.

Why I hate the A's & Billy Beane!

2004-07-15T12:29:00.000-07:00

The sabermetric fans out there are going to hate me for this one. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big reader of Bill James, Rob Neyer, Baseball Prospectus and many more sites out there but the A's have gone from underdog team you want to root for to annoying juggernaut. (I guess that comes with winning but for some reason I don't have that same feeling with the Red Sox or the Giants or Twins and they've been winning almost as much lately).

Moneyball sort of started it for me although it's quite hard to seperate truth vs. fiction there. But Billy Beane does come off as quite cocky in that book and I hate cocky people. Confident is great....cocky is downright annoying. I know Billy Beane has done amazing things with a low-budget, revolutionized small-market baseball strategy, could sell salted peanuts to a man stranded in a desert, GREAT! (By the way, Terry Ryan is winning with less of a budget in Minnesota...where's his book...sure weaker division but winning is winning)

Why would you be so silly to shut your team options by force-feeding a philosophy through an organization. What do I mean? Well I think it's well known that the A's dont' sacrifice bunt much, don't steal much, don't BELIEVE in the productive out, and basically believe in taking lots of pitches, station to station baseball and wait for the extra base hit. And it's a wonderful philosophy and when you were the only team practicing this philosophy you had a distinct advantage over many of the other teams in the league and it was a BRILLIANT choice to move the organization forward with. And if they win a World Series I'll be utterly AMAZED!!

I know, I know, the regular season is a truest way to tell which teams are the best and the playoffs are pure luck(especially 5 game series). The A's losing the last 4 years in the first round is an anomaly and eventually their turn will come. For the playoff haters out there, would you prefer the BCS? Let the writers vote who the best team is. I mean really, nothing is more exciting than playoff baseball, some of it's luck and I'd like to see the divisional round go to 7 games and definitely don't add anymore teams but playoffs are a GOOD THING!!!

My honest belief is that the A's thrive on bad baseball teams, thus struggle against the better teams. I know many of you will say don't all teams do this? They might I don't know. It's a huge research project and I need to check it out but here's my theory:

Okay the A's philosophy from what I gather is load up on guys who take lots of pitches, get walks, hit the ball for power, and defense is not as important as offense (although I think Beane is changing his mind on the last one). Well during the regular season you're probably seeing bad pitchers more often than you're seeing good pitchers who are bad cause they give more walks and more extra base hits and Voila! your offensive philosophy works. Here come the playoffs, runs are harder to get by, the pitching is much better, guys throw strikes and you have to hit the ball and maybe just occasionally manufacture a run here or there especially late in games. But your the A's, we don't believe in sacrifice bunts or steals and we won't change that just cause it's the playoffs. Not only that but by not encouraging stolen bases you're telling your team not to be aggressive, never put pressure on the defense. NEVER a good idea in sports! And the big unwillingness to allow all facets of the game into your playbook is just silly, stolen bases can be helpful, sacrifice bunts can be helpful, hitting the ball to the right side with a man on 2nd and nobody out can be helpful. There's no reason to banish these things from your game when they may be useful in certain situations and that is basically what the A's are doing. And if you don't do it much in the regular season, you're going to do it a lot less in the playoffs, because in pressure situations you tend to play the conservative hand and the conservative hand is not a good idea especially in the playoffs.

So what's the research project, well I'm not starting it anytime soon but you'd have to get the A's records vs. well above .500 teams, well below .500 teams, near .500 teams and see how they compare to the rest of the league. It may not show anything, it may show something, but it's something I'm going to try and do someday.

I was thinking the same thing

2004-07-14T12:52:00.000-07:00

Check this article out at Sports Illustrated.com. I was sort of thinking the same thing except for the whole inning rather than just Manny's at-bat. Sure would have been sweet justice.

REVISION: I guess the link changes every day but the theory was that Piazza pulled a Crash Davis on Clemens and told Manny what was coming after Clemens shook him off a few times.

Nomar to the Cubs? I don't think so

2004-07-14T11:51:00.000-07:00

There's a rumor flying that the Cubs will get Nomar from the BoSox for prospects to Arizona who will ship the Big Unit to the Bosox. Rumors are fun...I love rumors...this one would surprise me though.

Any upgrade at short would be nice, but if Dusty has any say on it I don't think you'll be seeing Nomar. He does seem to like the defense at short which is apparently why Rey Ordonez still sees playing time(although butchering easy plays & then making great plays is hardly good defense). And Jim Hendry doesn't seem to like making the half season rental trade unless it doesn't cost him much. So unless Nomar is willing to sign an extension, I would be surprised. My assumption is they see how Gonzalez does when he comes back and maybe a deadline deal for Cabrera or Vizquel if Gonzo struggles.

More than likely the only move I expect to see is a deal for a reliever. A lot of people are saying trade Patterson and try to get Beltran as well. I don't see that happening either. The Astros by firing Williams today still believe they can make a run and honestly giving up on a 24 year old who has drastically improved over the last month is silly. Once again I go back to the don't expect half season rental trades unless they come cheap. I could be wrong but that's my belief on Hendry's philosophy.

But let the rumors fly.

All-Star Game

2004-07-13T23:15:00.000-07:00

The midsummer classic.....not so much this year. I know Clemens is one of the greats and all but I haven't liked him since he left Boston and I didn't like him too much there either. Great pitcher....arrogant bastard.....only root for him if he's on my team. (If you substitute 'pitcher' with 'athlete' or 'player'...the preceding statement also describes such players as Dennis Rodman, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Barry Bonds, etc.) So anyway I was glad he got bombed. If the Cubs make the World Series this year we can blame him when Game 7 is at Yankee Stadium and the Cub faithful are being pelted by beer caps and potentially larger objects and even larger cuss words.

I didn't watch much else of the game, just a little bit here and there. When I was growing up, the All-Star game was rather momentous and it was a major thrill to see the Cubs players doing well. Although I vaguely remember Ryne Sandberg almost never doing well.

Tonight Sammy had a broken bat RBI single and a groundout, I didn't see what Alou did but apparently he got a hit and Zambrano would have had a scoreless inning if Patterson was playing center instead of Berkman. For those who say they should eliminate the rule that all teams should be represented, you're fools. The biggest thrill of almost every All-Star is watching how your player does against the best, so hope they keep it. The home field thing was a 2 year experiment and it's almost as arbitrary as alternating home field every year, so either way I don't care. Interleague has definitely dampened the All-Star experience along with many other factors I'm sure, but you know what it's still baseball. Unlike the other All-Star games which play some sort of "Kids glove" version of their sport at their All-Star games, baseball is still pretty much the same. Bullpen usage patterns and lineup changes are obviously different, but the game is basically the same as a regular season game.

Well anyway tomorrow is the worst day of the summer every year. No scores, everyone takes the day off meaning very little player movement, no fantasy stats to check...time to catch a movie and hopefully some Laker news will permeate the sports coverage tomorrow. (ESPN will make up Laker news even if there isn't any).

2nd half...wildcard here we come.

Welcome to the Transplanted Cubs Fan Blog

2004-07-13T22:42:00.000-07:00

Everybody has a blog these days, so what makes mine different. Well probably nothing. But after suffering the last seven years in Los Angeles without another Cubs fan to talk to(The AngelFan Wife Does Her Best) I felt a need to create something for me to do that. Thus "Transplanted Cubs Fan" has been born.

To say the least I'm a Cub fanatic, born and raised in the suburbs of Chicago (Schiller Park at first and then moved to Des Plaines when I was 8). My summers were kind of boring, no summer camp, not a lot of neighborhood kids to play with and no cable TV. So what was there to watch other than "The Great Space Coaster"? Well WGN, the Cubs and the occassionally drunken tirades of Harry Caray...good times!!! (I do remember liking the White Sox for a bit, some of that had to do with '83, some had to do with my Dad liking the team more than the Cubs, some had to do with they had fireworks at their park...little did I know at the time). But 1984 hit, Ryno, the Penguin, the big trade for Sutcliffe, Harry singing that ridiculous J-O-D-Y Davis song.....did I mention good times yet? And I was hooked, maybe cursed, who knows? Now my daily mood swings are tied very much into what the Cubs do every day (The AngelFan Wife loves this about me...really ask her).

So what can you expect from this blog? Well updates on Cubs player movement, scores and all that can be found anywhere on the net, so of course you'll be getting analysis of all that stuff. I'm sort of a stathead, but I'm not a slave to the stat. You'll all learn what I mean by that soon enough.I'm not a big fan of doing research and well there are others who will do a much better job than me like The Cub Reporter or Baseball Musings. I'll write up my philosophy soon enough.

Well here it goes...hope everyone enjoys.