Thursday, September 16, 2004

More useless playoff probabilities

If the Giants play at their winning percentage they'll be around 90-72 or 91-71 to end the season (8-7 or 9-6 in their last 15 games). For the Cubs that means going 12-7(.632 winning percentage) the rest of the way would give us 91 wins. With the competiton we're facing that should be possible, 1 win vs the Marlins(out of 2), 6 vs the Reds(out of 8), 2 vs Mets(out of 3), 2 from the Pirates(out of 3), 1 from the Braves(out of 3). All of that seems very reasonable to me(although I certainly hope we do better) and with the Giants competition, 91 might be a stretch for them, although they do have Mr. Bonds. With K. Greene out, the Padres road got a bit tougher, the Phils would have to win out from now just to reach 91, the Marlins just loss A.J. Burnett for at least a start, which leaves the Astros. They worry me as well, veteran team, last chance for a lot of them, and Clemens/Oswalt is tough. They do have a suspect bullpen and 3/5th's of a poor starting rotation which means they could lose 2 out of 3 to the Brewers much like that 3 out of 5 to the Pirates. They also would have to go 12-4 to get to 91 wins against tougher competition than the Cubs face. I'm still feeling quite hopeful.

To summarize and since for some reason I believe 91 wins is the magic number, here is what the teams will have to do the rest of the way to get to 91: (These are unweighted winning percentages meaning 8 games versus the Reds is the same as 2 versus the Marlins)

Giants: 9-6.....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .551
Cubs: 12-7.....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .493
Astros: 12-4....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .549
Marlins: 15-4....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .518
Padres: 13-3....Remaining opponents winning percentage: .482
Phillies: 16-0...Remaining opponents winning percentage: .467

In less than perfect math if we weigh them(oppenents winning percentage x games played versus that team....add it all up and divide it by TOTAL GAMES LEFT)
Giants - .553
Cubs - .483
Astros - .513
Marlins - .521
Padres - .470
Phillies - .474

For the Astros, in my opinion, they'd have to split the last 4 with the Cards, 2 out of 3 from Giants, and win out versus Rockies and Brewers for the magical 12-4. The Padres get to face the D'Backs for 6 which lowers their opponent winning percentage, but that also means they could face R. Johnson twice. The Cubs don't have the easiest road in terms of opponents winning percentages but they also have the least farthest to go(besides the Giants), not to mention everyone else has to beat up on each other. If the Giants win this thing or take over the say the least they deserve it. If we don't make it, to say the least, we blew it cause it's ours for the taking.

And I'm going out on a limb here, but it would not suprise me the least if we end up fighting the Dodgers for this Wild Card spot as well, they're limping to the finish with a horrible rotation, one reliever left and an average offense. Penny is due back Wednesday which certainly will help but how much will he pitch and how effective. The only good news for them is they have 7 games left versus the Rockies, which may just be enough to get them in.


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